In this week’s episode, we break down the latest FCC confirmations regarding BlueBird FM1. The "Launch and Early Orbit Phase" is complete—the satellite is talking, generating power, and tumbling as expected. With FM2 now safely at the payload processing facility in Cape Canaveral (likely awaiting New Glenn), we look at the specific orbital mechanics that hint at the company’s military utility.

Key Topics Covered:

FM1 & FM2 Status: Confirmation that FM1 has transformed from a "brick" to a functioning spacecraft. We discuss the commissioning phase and the wait for the solar array unfurl.
The "Spy" Stuff: We analyze the Space Development Authority (SDA) test formation. FM1 is at an inclination of 53 degrees at 520 km, while FM2 is targeted for 50 degrees at 460 km. This staggered altitude and angle create relative motion perfect for radar signal geolocation and emitter analysis.
AT&T & FirstNet: Jeff McElfresh (COO of AT&T) visited the Midland clean room to sign FM2. We discuss the implication of FirstNet’s strategic investment and the "Beware" distribution channel offering 11,000 IoT devices to FirstNet clients.
Starlink Numbers: A look at the competition. Starlink has hit 9 million customers, served 21 million airline passengers, and 20 million cruise passengers. We also debate their request to lower orbits to 480 km and the impact on satellite lifespan due to orbital decay.
Addressing the Bears: We take a deep dive into the "Bear Case" presented by users on X (formerly Twitter).

◦The Wholesale Model: Why a $0 Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) makes the wholesale model the only viable path, despite bear arguments about leverage.

◦Execution Risk: Acknowledging the past while looking at the new production capacity of 6 satellites per month.

◦Valuation: Is the stock priced for perfection, or is it a platform play with an expanding TAM?

Friendly Fire | 5. Something Bad is Going to Happen