Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - podcast - Episode 327 - January 22, 2026
Jan 23, 2026
Discussion of midterm-year market patterns and improving breadth. Analysis of MAG-7 earnings deceleration and the math behind their underperformance. A theme to avoid AI cost centers and find AI beneficiaries among everyday businesses. Deep dives into energy pick-and-shovel ideas like Comstock and National Oilwell Varco. Thoughts on Treasuries, Japan carry trade unwinds, and rotating into small caps and cyclicals.
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Episode notes
Buy Fundamentals, Not Headlines
- Don't buy stocks just because headlines push them higher; buy when fundamentals are cheap and beaten down.
- Buy defensives and unloved cyclicals now, and trim after headline-driven rallies.
Easing Cycle May Flood Housing Supply
- In an easing cycle housing demand and supply dynamics may diverge; supply could surge as trapped equity hits market.
- Buy housing-related suppliers and service providers rather than homebuilders to avoid margin compression.
Taking Intel Gains, Keeping A Free Option
- Tom describes selling half of Intel after it recovered to lock in gains and convert the remainder into a free option.
- He used proceeds to buy other opportunities while letting the speculative upside run.
