Marketplace All-in-One The humanitarian risks of a fertilizer shock
Mar 26, 2026
Michael Werz, a CFR senior fellow focused on food security and climate, explains how Strait of Hormuz disruptions are squeezing fertilizer supplies. He walks through which regions are most exposed. He discusses links between energy shocks, rising food costs, and the risk of humanitarian crises.
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Fertilizer Flow Through The Strait Threatens Global Food
- A third of global fertilizer transits the Strait of Hormuz, tying food security directly to the Iran war.
- Michael Werz explains nitrogen fertilizers like ammonia and urea rely on Gulf production and transit, so disruptions hit next season's crops.
Energy Price Spike Quickly Raises Bread Costs
- Fertilizer production and many farm operations are highly energy intensive, so rising energy prices push up food costs.
- Werz highlights irrigation, transport, storage and processing as channels that raise bread prices, especially in North Africa.
Remittance Drops Transmit Gulf Shock To Food Security
- Remittance declines from Gulf migrant workers create an indirect, rapid pathway for food insecurity in their home countries.
- Werz notes millions of migrants from exposed countries send remittances that fall when Gulf economies slow due to energy price shocks.