The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing The Geopolitical Shock Playbook (Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley) | #623
82 snips
Mar 25, 2026 
Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Equity Strategist and CIO, offers big-picture market strategy in a changing world. He discusses rolling recessions turning into staggered recoveries. He highlights breadth trades beyond mega‑caps into small caps, cyclicals and international markets. He flags risks from AI disruption, private credit stress and the Iran conflict, and outlines a move toward a flexible 60/20/20 portfolio.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Rolling Recessions Explain Narrow Market Leadership
- Mike Wilson describes a rolling recession that hit different sectors at different times instead of a single broad collapse.
- Manufacturing, consumer discretionary, and parts of small/mid caps were in a multi-year malaise while mega-caps masked that narrowness.
Rolling Recovery Interrupted By AI And Private Credit
- Wilson calls the current phase a rolling recovery where breadth is improving but uneven across sectors.
- He cites AI disruption and private credit stress as new headwinds that recently interrupted breadth gains.
Tilt Toward Equal Weight Small Caps And Cyclicals
- Tilt portfolios to equal-weight, small/mid caps, cyclicals, industrials, select regional banks, and materials rather than market-cap tech concentration.
- Wilson expects these areas to benefit from an early-cycle recovery once the interruption passes.