Ones and Tooze The Energy Crisis
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Apr 10, 2026 A wide-ranging take on an Iran-driven energy shock and how it echoes Suez and 1970s oil crises. They probe supply chokepoints, market integration, and renewable supply-chain geopolitics. A deep dive into Hungary's politics examines national capitalism, ties with Russia and China, and why populist leadership attracts global admirers.
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Fossil Fuels Make Trade Economically Necessary
- Fossil fuel geography is haphazard: deposits don't align with modern economies, making trade more efficient than autarky.
- Tooze highlights regional 'optimal energy areas' like North America where production and demand align.
Renewables Solve Geography But Create Supply Chain Dependency
- Renewables can be 'farmed' and right-sized to economies, reducing geographic randomness of energy supply.
- But supply chains for panels, polysilicon, and batteries are concentrated in China, creating new dependencies.
Prepare For Slower Rate Cuts Not Massive Tightening
- Expect central banks to be cautious: oil-driven inflation could delay rate cuts or push rates up despite not matching 2022 gas shocks.
- Tooze warns renewables' upfront capital sensitivity to rates is easing as solar capex falls to parity.