Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Wei Li & Ed Morse
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Oct 22, 2025 Explore the insights on the potential for Federal Reserve cuts as Wei Li discusses how weak labor markets may influence interest rates and support Treasuries. Meanwhile, Ed Morse challenges prevailing beliefs about oil demand, arguing that it won’t peak until around 2064 due to GDP-driven factors. Tune in for a thought-provoking look at economic trends and their implications!
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Weak Labor Market Can Support Treasuries
- Wei Li argues weak labor markets give markets a rationale to expect Fed cuts and support Treasuries.
- This dynamic can keep term premia from rising as markets test Fed independence.
Oil Demand Peak Much Later Than Consensus
- Edward Morse finds the market consensus that oil demand is peaking is likely wrong.
- His analysis suggests oil demand may not peak until around 2064 based on GDP-driven trends.
GDP, Not Hype, Drives Oil Demand
- Morse emphasizes GDP drives oil demand while oil intensity of GDP has been falling steadily.
- He uses long-term linear trends to project demand well beyond near-term EV impacts.