The Duran Podcast Germany Merz election trouble. SPD collapse
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Mar 16, 2026 Discussion of Baden-Württemberg's political shifts and why a wealthy region turned away from long-ruling conservatives. The surprising rise of the AfD and the Greens' appeal among affluent suburban voters. Analysis of the SPD's collapse as working-class support drifts right. Conversation about economic pressures, energy sanctions, and the potential decline of establishment parties.
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AfD Breakthrough In Affluent Baden-Württemberg
- Baden-Württemberg swung right but the AfD captured most of that shift instead of the CDU.
- AfD rose from ~9% in 2021 to over 18%, producing a major breakthrough in this wealthy region home to Porsche.
Greens Dominate Affluent Progressive Voters
- The Greens remain the main left beneficiary in parts of Germany with affluent, progressive suburban voters.
- In Baden-Württemberg the Greens again came first, attracting middle-class voters concerned with lifestyle, EU and NATO alignment.
CDU Fails To Capitalize On Rightward Swing
- The CDU increased vote share since 2021 but still underperformed relative to the overall rightward swing.
- CDU got less than 30% (about 29%) in Baden-Württemberg, a historically poor result despite a general move to the right.