Eurodollar University The European Banking System Just Did Something VERY Strange
Mar 30, 2026
A look at European banks quietly shifting balance sheets amid private credit jitters. Discussion of a blunt warning that geopolitical shocks masked deeper credit risks. Breakdown of massive government bond buying as a flight to safety. Exploration of ECB scrutiny and how these moves could rethink future interest-rate paths.
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Deutsche Bank's Warning That Iran Is Hiding Private Credit
- Ozan Tarman of Deutsche Bank warned the Iran war is masking private credit concerns that otherwise would dominate headlines.
- Tarman said forced redemptions from private credit could spill into public credit and equities, amplifying systemic risk.
ECB Survey Reveals Banks Already Tightening Credit
- ECB bank lending survey showed eurozone banks unexpectedly tightened corporate credit standards at end-2025.
- Survey cited high risk aversion and industry/firm-specific concerns, preceding the March oil shock and weak lending outlook.
Focus On Crisis Process Not Just Losses
- Focus on the process of a credit bubble turning into a liquidity crisis rather than headline loss counts.
- Study the three-stage crisis model (as applied to 2008) to spot where private credit sits in the breakdown sequence.