Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Richard Clarida & Francois Trahan
7 snips
Mar 25, 2026 
Richard Clarida, former Fed vice chair and Columbia economist, offers concise takes on models, policymaking and interest rates. Francois Trahan, BMO Capital Markets chief U.S. economist, discusses AI, productivity and who really adopts new tech. They explore how models can be backward-looking. Short, sharp conversations about monetary policy, consensus views and AI’s labor effects.
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Myron's Low Neutral Rate View Is A Minority
- Governor Stephen [Myron] holds a minority view that the U.S. neutral interest rate is well below current levels.
- Richard Clarida notes that while Myron could be right, the Federal Reserve committee does not share that view and it will likely remain a minority stance.
Limits Of Economic Models
- Models are useful decision tools but are inherently backward looking.
- Richard Clarida warns that relying solely on models can misstate current conditions because they reflect past data and committee views, not individual minority beliefs.
AI Productivity Gains Are Large-Firm Centered
- Hopes that AI will enable non-inflationary growth face timing limits because adoption is concentrated in very large firms.
- Francois Trahan points out small businesses — which create ~75% of U.S. jobs — have not broadly adopted AI by 2026, limiting productivity gains.