The Loonie Hour From Condos to Credit: The Cracks Are Widening
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Feb 27, 2026 They unpack Toronto’s plunge in new condo sales and why new construction may stay stalled. They cover strains in private credit and the ripple effects from a SaaS sell-off. Rising electricity demand from data centres and local pushback gets attention. They debate a commodities bull case and why minerals, energy and nuclear matter for Canada’s industrial future.
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Toronto Condo Pre-Sales Signal Fewer Housing Starts
- Toronto new home pre-sales are collapsing, signaling sharply lower housing starts over the next 2–4 years.
- Build GTA reported 269 new homes sold in January, the weakest January since 1981, with only ~80 condo pre-sales, so many projects won't reach financing thresholds.
New Construction Costs Prevent Quick Developer Price Cuts
- Developers can't quickly match falling resale prices because input costs, fees and financing keep new-build costs high.
- Even with free land, many projects 'don't pencil' due to commodity, interest, and government fee headwinds squeezing margins.
Construction Jobs Are Lagging Indicator Not Market Health
- Construction employment remains elevated because multi-year projects already underway still need workers.
- Once current towers pass midway floors they rarely stop, so job losses in construction will lag and show up ~18 months later.