Episode Summary:
- Earnings from WFC, C, BAC, and WBA
- Boeing faces another defect BA
- Why Chinese brokerage stocks are down FUTU TIGR
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Guests:
Marc Chaikin, Founder of Chaikin Analytics
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Meet The Hosts:
Dennis Dick
Twitter:https://twitter.com/TripleDTrader
Spencer Israel
Twitter: https://twitter.com/sjisrael
Joel Elconin
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Spus
https://www.premarketprep.com/
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Unedited Transcript
Good morning, everybody. I'm excited. You're excited. It's earning season here. Finally, we have stuff to talk about. It's been like a weird few weeks here, but we have stuff to talk about. Get hyped, great show prepared today. Let's run this thing and let's get it going. Hope you're having a great start to your day.
Coming to you live from downtown Detroit. This has been zingers pre-market prep with your host Joel Kahn. And this is a vowel tile property here. Isn't it. And Dennis stick, I bet the penny, I will buy the stock for a pen, which everything that you need to start your trading day
All right. Good morning. Good morning. Good morning. I'm Spencer. There's Dennis Joel beyond and his second, but we got the banks. We got Walgreens. We got dominoes, earnings reports, Taiwan, semiconductor, actual earnings reports to talk about. Causing volatility, which you know, that we like, you know, that we like, well, we will talk about yesterday as well.
We'll recap that, that, that, that session we'll talk about Boeing as well. I want to talk about a couple of Chinese talks. If we have time, we'll take questions from the chat market. Shaking will be on today in a few, probably call it 14 minutes or so. There's Joel. Good morning. Good morning. I'm excited.
It's Thursday, it's day one of our cannabis conference, which is going to happen next after this show. And I'm in a great mood. So Joel, pull up your charts for us please. And while Joel was doing that, everyone take two seconds out of your life and hit that goal. Like please. And thank you reminder in two days, is the.
Pre-market or perhaps Saturday extravagance of bootcamp after party morning, party brunch, you know, know I'm changing the name. It's now called brunch with Joel and Dennis. That's what it's called brunch with Joel and Dennis pre-market prep.com news 1230. Check it out. Joel. Good morning. How are you, Sam?
You got a little pep in your step besides yes, I am feeling. Good I'm feeling good. I mean, I'm going line the Spencer going to the office on Monday. That would not be the worst bet. That would not be the worst, the worst trade to make. Uh, I'll I'll, I'll give you some insight info on that, but that wouldn't be the worst idea.
Um, that's my goal. Back at the office. We'll see. I don't even know if they're going to let me back. I have to probably check with somebody first, but anyway, how are we doing? We're doing great. I mean, we had a, we had a strong close yesterday and, uh, and then boom, five, six o'clock open 54, 75. That's one tick below the clothes.
Tick 54. Boom just took out the pair of eyes at 65. Didn't even Blake. They're making new highs as we speak 94, 75, a couple of targets on the upside, a pair of highs from Friday and Monday it oh 7 75. So that's another 14 handles. And then the high from last week at 2150. So that's what we got up there. A little bit of range trading moving up towards the upper end of the range, uh, helped by some of these banks that good earnings today are crude.
That's up 89 cents at 81 33 high the move 82 18 gold up up it's a two day move right now, a bit over 1800, but now only up three 10 at 17 97, 80 silver clues, 23 up 12 and a half cents at 2320 9.5. Bitcoin did take out the 58, 3 50 pair of highs. But back under, it's still up to 35 57, 9 85, the Ethereum waking up that's up $213 37 64, a triple D was at you.
Did you just like start betting at six o'clock last night and just not stop? Was that you bid it up the spider and, uh, in the spoos or what was it,
Dennis? Okay, got that too busy trading, not paying attention. I started talking to you and it's the old mute Trek? No, I'm doing the same thing I'm doing all the time. I mean, this market is like clockwork. It's fade everything. If we wind the show to yesterday. What are we saying yesterday morning? Oh, it's looking bad.
You were all nervous. Joel, nervous about the market, making up, taking out the new lows and what happens. They turn around, they stay down for a couple hours. They kept leaking, you know, you did say, you know, and we kept leaking off the jobs number or the, or the CPI number. But then, you know, we do, we turn around.
Once we get down about two spy points, 20, as the people, once we start buying them and they buy them and they buy 'em and the bottom, the bottom, they finally buy, they buy them overnight. And now what do we do? We come all the way back up to resist. You got a nice fade. It's not even, it's 40 handles from the clothes, but from the lows of yesterday, we're up 70.
Every single you get us, actually, I don't even have to do the show anymore. You just keep me just fading, everything, heavy, everything, fade your moves. It's the market that stopping out all stuff. So we talked about this in the pre-market of you got to stop below. You're probably going to get triggered because when you're going like this, you're getting hit with your stops.
So you're buying the dip and selling the rip. And actually when you're getting stopped out, you probably should be buying the stock. So the undercutting rallies are working breakouts and certain stocks are, but most docs, they're not. We're just going to continue to chop around. I'm going to continue to repeat myself until it doesn't work anymore.
Because once you find a trend, you need to keep taking money from that trend as long as possible. As long as the trend stays intact, what is the trend? The trend is no trend. The trend is just fade everything. We just ride 70 handles my, buying it up here. Hell no. Are we going to go up another 20 points maybe, but I know what I probably we're going to be back down next week on some other headline and back down at 4 35 again.
So, you know, whatever you were buying yesterday, I'm probably selling today as a day trade, you know, as the short-term trades overnight. Buying the dips sound, the reps selling short, the reps, buying the depths until further notice. Can I compliment you on your end? I know, I actually went out the other day to change his shirt in like the two minutes, because, because I didn't want to wear the same shirt that I wore for that for yesterday.
So I figured I better change my shirt. That is, uh, you know, rich ride. We at Adidas when rich ride and we haven't that shirt's gotta be like seven, eight years old because we haven't had Adidas peril. Um, I don't think since like 2014, 2015. So, but anyways, it's I shirt making new highs that sir, I do. I do. I have, I have plenty of Michigan shirts, but, um, anyways, let's, let's get to, I mean, the banks are, the banks are helping out.
As we discussed in the pre pre-market show, JP Morgan set a low bar with the revenue missed at night CPSB then, then a bank. When you want to do bank of America, we'll do all of them together. Cause here's the situation. Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citi and Morgan Stanley all out this morning with their Q3, EPS and sales and all six, no eight of those numbers came in above the estimates, everybody beat on the headline.
Uh, everybody beats everybody, everybody beats every bank. And thank you, JP Morgan for setting the bar so low for every other bank out there, because we know that JP Morgan numbers, even though they were okay, they weren't fantastic in the hand hammer the stock on it. What does that do immediately sets the bar lower for every bank that's reporting the next day on one of the biggest bank earnings days we've ever had.
So yeah, so you go through them all, like he was saying, or the expensive was saying, Morgan Stanley up 2% of the pre-market Wells Fargo up 1.2% of the pre-market bank of America, kicking butt and taking names up 2.8, 5% of the pre-market Citi group up 1.6, 9% of the free market USB up as well. Am I chasing these bank earnings?
I don't chase anything in this environment because it's not the environment to chase them. But what I will say is that, you know, obviously if you're in, um, even bank of America, let's go start with that one. Joel, you're going to come in by the spring of 44 and a half right now when it's 30 cents off the highest, uh, if I, if I did, if I did, I'd be out there at 44 82 and I would say, come and get me no matter what happens, I would leave my offer out there.
And I would wait three hives in a row, 44, 87, 81, 82. The Southern that probably was at the point, moved down to 90, probably big size at 90. I mean that you just got paid attention to that level. That's it? That's it. I'm only going to give one level and that's potential resistance in bank of America. If it did come down to the top of yesterday's range, I'd see, I'd have some interest in buying it, but not.
The other ones, Citi group, man, we never talk about shitty group. Uh, I don't talk about city group. I still, this was one that I had in my lawn. I bought Citi group of my long-term portfolio in about 2002, and then it went up and it went up and I went up and then in 2007, 2008, it went what, what did it do?
And if you go to the long-term chart, you can say, oh, well, if you just buy and hold, it eventually comes back. Uh, uh, uh, not so fast because Citi group did a one for 10 reverse split. And actually the high believed the high, the all-time high is around $650. Oh, look at that. Buy and hold doesn't work, buy and hold did not work in city group.
And I've had people say that to me. I, you know, when I've talked to you in the past, like you just buy as banks eventually. Nope. Nope. Not when you dilute yourself, they didn't make it out of the financial crisis. JP Morgan did not have to dilute themselves. That's why that stock came back. I actually, Wells Fargo, I don't believe diluted themselves much either because Wells Fargo is actually been a better performer over the last course of the last 20 years than Citi group.
But if you look at the city group chart, yes, those highs are real $550. I had, I had bought, I think about 40, which was 400. It had a nice run of 500 or 2 55, which would be 550. And then it went down and down and down. And eventually I wrote it off because it was never coming back in and you know what, it never really did.
Never came back. Look at bank of America.
Look at that. What's the all time high bank America. Yeah, it's still significantly off. A lot of these banks never came back after the financial crisis because they started diluting themselves. When your company starts diluting itself, seriously, that's where you got problems. AIG. I knew you're going to go this is the ugliest.
One of the ugliest, one of them all go back just for fun, because we, everybody believes the stocks just always go up. Oh my goodness. They don't $1,400 56. You think you're getting your money back at 14? Never, you know why, because of it ever goes back to the 1400, it would be the most valuable company in the world.
Why? Because they diluted themselves so much to survive the financial crisis. It was that bad. Well, you don't realize at the time horizon of 250 years. So if I, I will eventually get my money back and I, I don't know if you will, or that's just for fun. Let's see what the merch cap really would be of AIG.
So these are good exercises. It would be, I think it would be like $56. So we're going to get out your calculator, Spencer, get out the calculator, put it on the screen. I'm going to numbers, math class, math class, $56 times. There is 855 million shares. on that. Okay. We're going to go like this. So we're going to 55 million, 855.
Yeah. Times. What was the all time high? 1500 bucks for AIG. Yeah, I know ballpark it. It's fine. If it goes back to the all time high, which one are you talking about? Free. I, to get back to the all time high, the market cap would be $1.3 trillion, 1451. I think that's right. It would be a trillion dollar company.
It would have to be yep. $1.3 trillion is where it needs to go. Is that right? That can't be right. It has to be more than that. Doesn't it? It can't be right. No one, not $1 trillion. Getting to just be ridiculous. 1, 2, 3. There's so many zeros here. I can't go that high. Yeah. Two, 500 million, 218. Yeah. At 1.3 trillion.
That's right. You might as well have the trillion dollar coin AIG. So you think you're getting your money back as AIG, going to be a $1.3 trillion company? Personally, I don't. I mean, that's called dilution. My friends, when your stock is diluting itself, it's time to get hit the exits, unless they're doing it for good reasons.
And then those good reasons are for growth. So bottom. Okay. Now that I've upset all you guys are my experts today. Bottom line, Joel. Almost. No, I just want it just real quick. We really, that was a tangent and a half there. Um, if you're basing it on the high of the move. I mean, C, C, C looks like it has some room to run 71 55.
You're not even at your two day high, just under 72. Uh, the high of the midway over 73 Wells, far low, uh, that's bouncing back or Ooh boy, our major resistance over 48. This focus on your two day high here all 47 53. And if you don't hold yesterday's high 46, 57. We'll give some back. So, um, and Morgan Stanley had a good quarter, right?
Let's see here. That's good. That's got some real, that's a real all-time high and Morgan Stanley two, I believe 1 0 6. It didn't do the kind of dilution, the big Goldman Morgan. A lot of them didn't have to dilute it because they actually didn't have pure banking businesses either. And I have all the bad housing, one.
Uh, what have you got? You got, this is a interesting area just for you, Morgan Stanley traders, a trio of high. So it's called one double O 75. You haven't hit that yet. All right. It is eight 15. Let's bring on our guests today. Little sign for Chaikin. Uh, I don't want to have him I can make him a song. How would that for now?
Jacob, up the cannabis conference for you guys. That should be the date for this segment. All right. Mark chicken. Good morning, sir. Good morning. How about the walls of the Tory or Athoria doors? Cause I'm bullish. Yeah, look at the book, but are you chasing the move in the last few days? Shaking the move.
You're shaking. He's bear. He's doing it right thing. You're buying a dip celebrate. I'm buying depths. I at the style there's so much bearishness or skepticism out there even yesterday with JP Morgan reporting, they finished down on the day, but today is going to break that this is going to be the first day, first quarter in six quarters that Citi and bank America will trade higher on the day of the earnings.
That's a big. 'cause people have been really skeptical. Analysts have been cutting their estimates coming into earnings. We've been, yeah, I'm sure you've all talked about the pattern of four closes in the bottom quarter of the range in a row for NASDAQ and spy. And that always leads to 30 day positive performance, like 82% of the time.
So as the market is set up to succeed here, not to fail in earning seasons, you're looking at because there is some stocks set up to fail. So they're not all going to go. So which, which sectors are you looking at? Well, I'm looking at capital markets and today Morgan Stanley gives you a lot of courage here.
Obviously Goldman Sachs will ride the coattails of that, but I like Blackstone group. That's a way for the individual investor to buy into private equity, early stage financing, real estate. It's it's a great play. It's not going to double, but they've got. New money coming in. I think 47 billion came in in the last quarter and they're, it's a fee-based company.
They are in 97 basis points on there, uh, about 80, 80 to 90% of their assets. So it's a really interesting. Uh, it's a way for the average investor to have exposure to private equity in a meaningful way. And I like it, but there are, there are sexier plays, but this is a solid what's. The other one KKR has the other big one, right?
Yeah. KKR has come under a little pressure. You've got the two principals resigning. I think there's a little bit of uncertainty about what happens without Kravis and Roberts. But, um, thinking about that, I mean, these are the kind of just stop and it was just like a plan to such in, is there some, I mean, it just seemed like a chronic and once there's a Leon black in their closet, no, George Roberts is a straight arrow.
I know, I worry about those emails you sent in 2011, John. Oh my God. Yeah, watch. What would you say? And in print and on the air jokes. So I also continue to like cybersecurity, I mean, everyday worried about email, um, fraud about, you know, companies being compromised because of, uh, breaches. And there are some, I still like Fort net, it came down very buy-able in the two 90 area.
We've talked about it a lot. So, uh, and I'm trying to find some small cap names in cybersecurity broken out yet. So maybe, you know that one's maybe a sleepy one, that's got a catch up trade. Cause he looked at like CyberArk and you think, okay, it's gone. I mean, it had the breakout over one 70 and boom we're 180 1.
Um, interesting. You know, and CrowdStrike had pulled back, it gave you a boat. It gave you about a month here, you know, we're in hanging out at the lows and then boom, yesterday, CRW D it's like these favorite stocks. They out of favor for a little while, and then the market shows a little bit of life and those ones that are in favor of their leaders.
Yep. I agree with you. And, uh, Fordanet is rich. I mean it's 97 times earnings, so, uh, it's got a catch up to the current price, but it tends to make new highs, uh, a little bit behind the market. So, uh, there's a lot to like in this market and I think there's a key level that I want to point out on the triple Q's.
It's the three 70 level on the upside, and it's not a parrot on the chart, but this is where the deal of gamma kicks in. And I don't know this based on my own research. I have a service that does this. Uh, finding, explain that mark that's well, it, it has to do with the open, uh, Dennis is probably better at this than I am.
It has to be open interest in the futures, in the options and where, where the deal is feel. They've got to get more aggressive at amping up their hedges. In other words, if they're long, because people are selling out of the money puts for instance, and it goes to a certain level there, they all these gamma theorists around and they tend to be right.
I think the new market structure, normally I didn't pay attention to what the computers were doing and when, but so much hatching. Yeah. And it's the deal. And there's so much, it's the citadels of the world and the people who are market makers. And there's an awful lot of options, activity and futures activity that the institutions are doing.
They're selling out of the money, puts they're buying protection, and we don't see any of this, but there's a couple of services, no more securities as an institutional analyst, Charlie, Miguel, again, who copies this. And I, I'm not, I don't qualify to subscribe, but there are people who translate his work in basically three 70 is the level.
If you go above that, the dealers have to get aggressive at getting long and. Yeah. And those types of environments you see, uh, like a melt up kind of situation the times has that been relevant? I know, I know you really explained it. Well, it was during some of the explorations, uh, last year. I don't know if it was the March expiration, June expiration.
I know it had a huge impact then is it had, I mean, you know, cause everyone was really flipped. They were all short a heads to the short side and the market rip to the upside. I don't, I mean, we're going to have that kind of reaction again. It seemed like maybe that was just like a one or two off flash.
No, this is, this goes on every month you had it in, um, in, uh, November, December of 2018. That's what created the help create that waterfall. But we are in an options expiration week and this year has been different. Uh, 20, 21 typically, uh, Dennis, again, you be my conscience on this. Typically the market has gotten.
Um, in the week before options, expiration then sold off afterward this year has been different, uh, except for September, uh, the market has gone down, uh, up and down in options expiration week. We're going to break that mold here. I mean, the biggest issue is what you often see. And I used to talk about the Monday effect the Monday after the options expiration is you see liquidity go last because what you have is those options come off the board.
So all of a sudden anybody who's, you know, using those options and they got those options has hedges and they've played the stocks off those off. You lose that whole, uh, after the third, Friday. Cause not all stocks have weeklies out there. You lose a whole bunch of liquidity there and that's why you often see bigger moves on the Monday that follows you.
The direction is sometimes random. But what I say is sometimes, you know, like you'll see a whole, this whole bunch of open interest. Everybody's got these calls that expire on the Friday and then all of a sudden, the Monday comes around and that works for the weeklies as well. And all of a sudden volatility picks up on those individual stocks that had a lot of open interest in, you know, in some strikes that are close to where the current price is.
So one thing usually see is the increase in volatility on the Monday. Yeah. The other thing is that there's people front running these patterns now. So in September, um, instead of the buying that you would've seen on Thursday, Friday, you got it on Monday Tuesday because everybody's got access to the same information now, you know, red, red, it's the great equals.
Mark D the three 40 number, the 3 43 70 number in the queues. Do you happen to know what that corresponds to on, uh, on the, on the NASDAQ futures or? No, this is a question from the chat. I don't know. I watched the spiders. I don't watch the, uh, I, they usually pretty close. The spiders are a couple of points away in terms of support and resistance from the spy, from the QS index.
I just wanna get your overall market thoughts here. I mean, yeah, there are pockets of areas that you like that hasn't changed, but it seemed like at least from your email last night, that, that you're just pretty bullish. Like you think earnings season is going to carry us high. I do because analysts were cutting their estimates coming into earning season and typically that, uh, and it's more than just the bar.
It means people are leaning the wrong way. Remember, Paul Tudor Jones is great comment. You know, I always want to know who's leaning the wrong way on the. And clearly, if analysts are lowering their estimates, there's a bit of a bearish tone and people are leaning negative. So in addition to overcoming the bar, which I agree with you, it means that people who have been sort of expecting a messy earning season are now saying, today's going to be the case.
We can hold these gains today. There is no a story in the world that says earning season is going to, and remember what are people focusing on? Inflation, supply chain issues. Now here's the most important story of the day port of Los Angeles, port of port of long beach, California are now going to be operating on a 24, 7 basis.
Walmart. I thought, I thought they already weren't, you know, Europe, Europe, they do, but not, no we've got unions, buddy. That's a union town. Uh, so yeah, that's a big deal. They're going to break these supply chains. Uh, bottlenecks, we're going to have more semiconductors. And we know the market's a discounting mechanism.
I mean, on the show and, and in my head, I'm always thinking, you know, what's the market going to do today? Next week, the stock, market's looking ahead, six to 12 months and saying, okay, we have inflation now. Yeah, food inflation, isn't going away, but what's it going to look like in 12 months? So all these people are saying you've had the peak of the economy, the peak of earnings momentum.
I think they're puffing, smoke. They're guessing. And in the stock market, you don't want to guess. You just want to, and that's why the trend is so important here. And we have not. Re-established the uptrend, by the way, we've got to get above 4,500 in the S and P uh, campaign and for Paul's job. In February, is there, is there any rumor to that, to that transitory?
What about, what about something that hasn't left the station yet? You know, things that, you know, you have, I mean, bottom picking is a, you know, can be a dangerous sport, but some of this, some of this health care, I mean like Bristol Myers. So they go out of business. I mean, I know that shaking rating is probably going to be negative on that, but, you know, is there anything that, you know, your, your life next rotation?
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, and biotech is actually doing pretty well right now. I assume there are some has a really good chart pattern. It has a bullish rating. I'm not recommending that DVA. I'm not recommending that one. Cause it's there. I've got too many vaccine plays in my head. Um, I also think at some point Moderna is going to turn.
It had a bullish rating, obviously with all the, uh, uh, I wouldn't call it negative news, but with the merch pill called it all these stocks. Yeah. But I wouldn't count. Um, Madonna out, everybody was so excited about the RNA technology. Uh, that's not going to change. And my view is COVID is going to be with us for a long time.
So, uh, you got to find ways to play vaccines and so forth flu season's coming up, you know, there's, this, there's a lot more to our health issues than just, you know, a booster shot. And how long is it gonna gonna last? I also would look at home builders. I, um, I'm scrolling air and trolling to see if we have any bullish rated home.
The home builders have been hit. And obviously because he get input costs going in that hits the home builders to a certain extent because people are like, wow, I'm not building a home when you know, when everything is doubled. I know cause I'm building a home, but, um, they have been hit. So, you know, eventually you get to an environment maybe where, you know, the home builders actually, I mean on our Eliane, it's 10 points off the highs.
I mean, they're still doing well. It's just a matter of looking forward. You know, how the market always tries to look forward. Is it going to be the last people building homes because the input costs are so high? Well, we've got a small cap home builder that I recommended in July and it's called technical last.
TGL S it's a Colombian company that makes architectural glass and it's a play on the south Florida. Housing and building boom they're primarily office buildings. They make those big sheets of glass that protect you against hurricanes and, and, uh, things like that. And it's right at the high, had an unbelievable quarter it's fins.
So please don't barrel into this one and they're volatile. These stocks can drop 25 or 30% because the bids evaporate, but, uh, it's, it's at a double top here and making a new high. I think, you know, this is a stock that's proven that they can make money in down markets, but south Florida we know is booming and they're just getting into residential.
And the nice thing about residential is sorry about that, guys. Didn't turn my phone. I'm not sure. Totally Horace silver. It's fifties jazz. So our question for the chat, any, any oil, energy names you like right now? Oh yeah. I liked the cold stocks. CIX, you know, their problem is they're all making new highs and you gotta be a real believer.
But, uh, if you look at what some of the major banks are doing, like the guy at JP Morgan, who's been a guru for the last three years on sectors, uh, really believes that the energy crisis is just beginning because of a lack of supply. So, uh, coal, uh, you know, love it or hate it. Environment-wise coal is an alternative to ramping up your drilling rigs and getting your friends.
Uh, programs funded by banks. So coal is in there. You just have to extract it. So CIX is one that, uh, has a great looking chart. Take a look at that chart and see if you're seeing what I'm saying. Um, it's a little pull back to 32 after making that. Hi, I'm mark. What about, what about bait tack? Is it just, just leave it alone?
Just it's you know, it's had its run. It's just going to muddle along. Cause I always look at like, yeah, you can get your, you know, you can get market going, but you know, the big tack, the big components of the index. How about Facebook? Well, are you doing any bottom fishing and Facebook? Uh, well I don't bottom fish, some smart people say, look, this is three companies in one year buying Instagram, you're buying WatsApp, you're buying Facebook.
If they break it up, it might be worth more than the summer. Some of the parts might be worth more. I like Google. It has a neutral plus rating. It just has to get above. Uh, you know, resistance here to go bullish again. I like Google and Nvidia, uh, in the big cap tech stocks. I think Amazon has troubles the chart pattern on Amazon,
you know? Yeah. It has on, um, you know, Jay is Jeff is the Jeff Bezos success are going to pull off a Tim cook. I somehow doubt that's worse than a consolidation. Dennis PPI, excluding food and energy was up 2% versus the estimate of pup 0.5%. I mean food and energy. I mean, you know, w really, um, gas prices are at a seven year high, but the market knows this.
That that's the thing. If you're talking about tapering, if you're talking about inflation and this is not a surprise, what's what could bite the market. If, and when is something we're not even looking at right now, you know, do, do we have a shooting war over Taiwan in some form? You know, does the Chinese it's always that unexpected expected.
I just can't focus on what's right in front of me, except when I'm looking at the market trends. Fair enough. Fair enough. Mark Chaikin is the founder of Chaikin analytics, a long time veteran of every market cycle. Really? So mark, we appreciate your, oh, by the way, Joel, you were looking for a nickname for me and I, I guess I'm late to the party, but has anybody given you the nickname?
The three Amigos
and if so, who's Martin short. Uh, there's this one guy they'd send emails to. Uh, he's comments and most, every show Spencer, I don't send them to you. Um, he calls us a lot of different things. They're not all good. Migos is one of them. He gets really mad at Spencer. I don't know why he gets so mad. It's a voice of reason.
I, I, I, I can take whatever you have to say. I can take it. I'll start sending them to, yeah, really? Yeah. Oh boy.
filter. That takes care of that. So that's an area of the market. I would look at anybody doing email security. Um, and there are a couple of names there. I'll talk about next. You got a name. I'll hold it till next time. I'm going to say for us, it sounds it's called a T. Thanks a lot, mark. All right. You as well, you as well.
Hey, let's talk about Walgreens here for just a second. And then we got some more stuff I want to get to quickly. We're going to end the show at nine o'clock today. So, uh, let's go to Walgreens cause they had earnings and I, I, this one makes sense. In hindsight, uh, the earnings be the sales beat and apparently Walgreens gave out twice as many COVID vaccines as they thought they were going to.
Which when you think about all the vaccine mandates kinda is like a duh, like why? And I think of that type of thing. Any case I know the stock is offered to pre-market high of enjoyable. What's it doing this morning? I'll give you two things. Major resistance at 49. I mean, look at all those highs just under 49, but I'll give you a more important tip on Walgreens.
Don't go to the Walgreens at 14 and metal. After the close between four 15 and four 30, it is just absolutely jammed. Like the line to pick up anything, to pick up a prescription, to buy anything, incredible lines there. So that before and later I want to go to a lot of these Walgreens in San Francisco, either
six of them, just because of shoplifting. They can't, I don't, I don't get it. Why can't you like stop? Like I see this video. I don't understand. I see this video, the one guy just blatantly shoplifting and putting stuff in his bag. It's the one that. Why are they not grabbing him and arresting him? I don't understand.
I maybe they do. Like, he just says, go away. I'm like, he's taking this stuff and they're just like, kick them out of the store with all this stuff. I don't care. I don't know. Maybe the worker don't come here with your understaffed. And they were like, well, there was like a security officer there too. I wasn't not detain that guy and arrest him.
I don't understand at all. I don't know. I can't understand what's going on in San Francisco with a shoplifting. It's really out of hand apparently. And that's, you know, sad. Obviously. I don't know. They got to like crack down on that. That's a major. I don't know. I don't know. Anyways, 49, I haven't looked at CVS in a while.
Whatever happened to that? JP Morgan, Warren buffet. No, it's dead. It's dead. They're saying I did hear this. That there's that there is no criminal record now or something for process or for shoplifting under $750 goes wild. Yeah. So that's why everybody is stealing everything. I don't know if that's true.
I'm not about that. That's what the chat saying too, is a lot of people apparently from San Francisco out there. So they've given us the details here right now, arrest them. If they steal under a certain amount, I have no idea to change that law because if you're stealing anything, you should be arrested.
In my opinion, I just, my opinion. I don't like shoplifting. And obviously if you're not going to prosecute, shoplifters shoplifting is going to increase upstate. It's kind of common sense. Do you have that? Do you have an algorithm for that dentist? I think a positive correlation between not prosecuting shoplifters and shoplifting going up is probably quite high.
Who said the coldest winter was a summer in San Francisco. Frank Sinatra? No, the gas price. Same. Who was it? What about, let's go to the chat. I know we got some old, I bet you I'm not that far off. Mark Twain. Mark Twain said that or saying that I thought he just said things. I didn't say. I thought I heard saying then you're saying no, mark.
Mark Twain also said my favorite place to shoplift is in Walgreens. Uh, Hey, they're closing six stores. So yeah, so that's what you get shoplifters at Walgreens may not gonna be able to shoplift anymore there cause they closing the stores. Okay. It wasn't, there's not a lot of stuff on that. I don't know about the supply.
They might be having some supply chain issues. Well, you know, maybe people are stealing everything, but it's weird. Like you go in there,
that's the source of the supply chain, but I'm bringing this back. I'm bringing this back. First of all, why do you get winter wag? No, they bought boots, lions, and then they booted it. They don't have
green boots. No, they sold boots. They kid, otherwise it's still in the name. I still got boots in there. Walgreens boots, Alliance, WPA. That's what it stands for. I mean, what a, her wag was awesome. I like the dark. I'm moving to sauna here to Boeing report this morning from wall street journal that Boeing is dealing with a mother manufacturing problem.
This one is on the 7 87 Dreamliner. I guess they have these titanium parts. These titanium parts are. As strongly they're supposed to be apparently. And I'm just another and a continuing series of manufacturing hiccups for Boeing though, not involving the 7 37 max. So I guess that's, um, airlines, airline makers.
There's just, there's, there's definitely an overall trend in these things and it's not up. So Boeing has been a consolidation station for a while here. I guess Boeing's kind of just been consolidating here around 200, 2 50. Uh, I don't know, start really showing some life here, mate. Maybe this is the one you sit on and maybe eventually it comes back, but you know, again, if you're not the believer that business travel is coming back, then it's not good news for Boeing either.
So the business travel in the earlier, I don't, I don't really, I, I think when are they getting out by Boeing, when they start making smaller air. 'cause I just think these, these big jet liners, man, I just, I dunno, I think travel is going to be, you're going to need the smaller planes. He's on vacation business travelers, not coming back.
And that's why I stay away from the airlines. Easier places for your money. Th that thing opened up at stiff yesterday's low. And then there's so many bag holders in there. I mean, in all these airlines, it's tough for them to go higher. I mean, they've had nice rallies from the blows back when we thought everything was ending, you know, back in April and March of 2020, they've had a nice rally, but where are they going now?
I mean, we've had some dilution and a lot of these stocks to which we already had the dilution talk and that's never good. I don't think any of these companies diluted themselves to the degree that AIG did, but at the same time that show share counts, go up. You've got to figure out, okay, well to get back to the highs, where's the market cap got to go.
Does that make sense? So a lot of people where they have flawed analysis, they just look, oh, this stock was $60. So eventually it would get back to $60. Well, if they've diluted themselves, it's harder for that to. Um, I don't have all the airline dilution in front of me, but I can remember a lot of offerings, um, back.
And I don't know if it was Delta or who it was, but there was some offerings back a year ago. So all of that dilution adds up. I mean, it's the same thing with AMC. There was some dilution here too. So, you know, you add it up and, you know, AMC is its own animals.
planning and attack soon. Look at that. Ah, look at that. Yeah. Look at that. Quiet. It isn't consolidation stations. So it's there, you got a little double bottom for the last couple of days here. It does its own thing. You can't apply fundamental analysis to that thing right now. Eventually I believe you will be able to right now you can't.
So I just kind of stay away from that. Although I do trade AMC and GME together, we know I like to penetrate them. That was GME. We haven't talked about that.
We may toss up that monthly chart on GME. We've been talking about that for awhile. Jamie's starting to set up. Yeah, it's got a set up there though. I see. The reason I can't get behind it is I just can't grasp the, obviously as a trade, you shouldn't be looking at fundamentals anyways, but I just can't grasp the concept of GME as $184 stock with a market cap of
grabbing it, you know? And then you compare it around yeah. $13 billion. So. Yeah, it seems like a lot of money to play for a video game. Um, okay. We have a few minutes left. I want to cover dominoes as well. This morning PZ, they had earnings. Um, it didn't doesn't seem as bad to me is everyone's making it out to be so here's the headline numbers for Domino's okay.
Their earnings per share B their sales missed, uh, by a little bit there, uh, what everyone is, is hanging their hat on though, is that same store sales in the U S declined. They actually fell, uh, 1.9% for them. It was the first time in like eight years that serum store sales in the U S have declined in dominoes on a year-over-year basis.
However, if you look international through same store sales grew, well, I just had it up here. I think it was, um, uh, it, it was almost 9% and international represents two thirds of their locations, right? Two-thirds of their, of their footprint is outside of the. So, you know, you know, I, I don't know how big a deal one quarterly decline in same-store sales in the U S is when you compare it to a nine, almost 9%, same store sales growth for two thirds of their stores outside the us.
Um, but that seems to be what everyone's hanging their hat on this morning is the U S stands for sales decline. Uh, now at home play to a certain extent. I mean, when, during the pandemic of last year I ordered dominant, we ordered dominoes pizza as a family. I felt like I feel like twice a month. So when we haven't been ordering dominoes at all, because we're actually going out, you sit on a patio, you can do some stuff, you know, like you're, you're enjoying yourself a little bit more.
So as the reopening trade has. Back and, you know, to a certain extent it failed, but, uh, as people are going out and doing more things, they don't need as much Domino's pizza with that being said, this is the best, one of the best run companies out there. It's like chapeau lay that just, you know, has its past trades at a higher valuation than its peers.
There's a number of reasons that they do everything right. So do I believe Domino's pizza is going back to 400 and the Katy bar, the door we're going down. I don't think so. I wouldn't be surprised that gets. Uh, you're taking out a somewhat important support at four 70. So now that's going to be your resistance.
So I, till it get back above four 70 path of least resistance is lower. You are taking out your low from, uh, July, which was 4 61. This is Todd did four. I'll just give you the pre-market low as a potential area, but I'm not going to drill back on the dailies. But I do have an idea. Remember how, when I was in Ann Arbor, when, you know, if they didn't deliver it within 30 minutes, we used, we used to park, we lived on a one-way street, Greenwood, and we used to park our car, you know, so the guy couldn't get through well, now, if they don't bring your food out to you in two minutes, it's free.
Have you seen those commercials? No door in order, if you like go to the store and then send your car, if you do a carry out or something, you know, you call in and you go pick it up. But how you can just sit, stick something in the door. So they couldn't open the door for, oh, you can teach him bad things on this show, evil things, Joel quickly, before we get Joel prosecuted here for doing mean things, Domino's went on that, that PR campaign where they would pay the roads.
The roads in Michigan are so bad and, and Domino's is a Michigan based company that they went on this campaign where they're like, we're going to pave the roads in Michigan because they're messing up. Our deliveries, they're messing up the pizza, then the car, Michigan Domino's farms out there. Um, he does everything right, love the company.
I'd actually be a buyer, the dip, I'm not going if I coming on the first day, but maybe I have no position. And I don't really intend to put a position in a Domino's pizza, but I think the dip probably gets bought a couple more stocks on my list here. Your biggest losers of the morning so far are your Chinese brokerage names.
So tiger T I G R O, which is up FinTech and futu, which is F U T U. Why are those your biggest losers? Because there was a update on some Chinese government website that basically was like, Hey, these Chinese, but these brokerage companies would basically allow Chinese nationals to invest in like us companies, us stocks.
Uh, we think you're probably in violation of some of our new regulations. So. More shiny government torching your companies. I mean, this is just makes me so not wanting to invest in China. And every time we come in, once a week, we're coming in and there's a new sector getting hit because the regulation, I mean, I don't know what to say anymore.
Like I said, I own that piece of Alibaba, but, and I've got an ETF that I've got some emerging markets ETFs, but those are full of Japan and Singapore, they're becoming more and more full of Japan probably. And the other emerging market, or I don't know if emerging markets, but Asian, sorry. That's said emerging, but the Asian markets there, um, I think you've just got this non-stop, you know, sell any bounce in any Chinese stocks because of the money managers are nervous.
We just don't know what the next. Thing they're going to do. So I just can't get interested in investing in China, not with always regulate. Joel, Joel is going to have the Japan ETF pull back Dennis, and you know what that coincides nicely with the rally and the FXI over the course of the last week. So you can see money.
Okay, well, we're going to start pulling it back. Look at FXI look at there's a negative correlation between Japan and China. That's been happening for a little bit here, go further out on the charts, you know, and that's, our job is to identify correlations and how to profit from them. But I mean, I don't think it's coincidental that Japan and China has a negative correlation right now, because there is investors that are like, okay, well, you know, here's China stock starting to show some life.
Let's move some of this money back out. If you're staying within Asia, if you're staying within Asia, then I think you're, you know, as you're moving money out, China, you got to stay within Asia. You're going to go Singapore and Japan. And if you start moving money back into China, then you go the other way.
But I think this, uh, this balance in Chinese stocks is. So I'd actually be a buy. I actually buy the dip on the chat, Japanese stocks. I, I, I've got a couple of Japanese bonds. I think I would buy it as well. You're looking at EWG. I actually believe I own the Canadian equivalent of EWG. I might even know what you D w J direct cause you know, Canadian.
So by the Canadian Japanese bonds, but I actually liked that pulpit has a nice pullback 10% over the course of the last month. That'd be a buyer, the dip on EWG. Got it. Can we request, I haven't been given the dad jokes of the day lately forgetting. Yes. Uh, I'll give you a Wednesday. Dad's love to tell you how important it is to learn, to drive a stick shift.
Do they even make stick shifts anymore? I've got to get rid of that. Probably.
It's been on my to-do list to learn. That's fine. Hell yeah. I suck at it. My wife, her first car, we had a stick shift and then I'd have to go drive that thing. And I was like, I'm terrible because I didn't, I had an automatic as my first car, so I never driven a car until you've done a burnout.
Take a video of you doing a burnout and then bring it onto the show. I got some of my older days when I had the last thing, we want to see the mitzvah. Uh, dad's love to complain that people around their phones too much these days. I like that too. So I'm one of those dads. It's like people go on a date, you to see these young dating apps, dating apps, and then they go out on the physical date and you look in, they're both on their cell phones.
Cause they got to update their status on what they're physically doing.
that's how the date's supposed to work. All right. Let's do some, I agree with that statement. I agree with that. Dad joked that I was wearing a couple of them down. Let's take a look at tattooed chef T TCF. Cool. We're long time. I know solidation station here. Mister is real. Look at the eye on this guy.
Question is, has it been down here too? A little bit support, a support until it's broken. And we talked about that huge level in hood. I have not looked at this chart a huge level in the tattooed shelf. So you got your setup. 1779, the lower the move. Do you get an undercut and rally maybe a day, maybe you gotta give yourself to 17, um, to give yourself some wiggle room.
If you're doing, I don't follow the fundamentals of this company whatsoever. I'll just say I have a setup here. The one issue I would have is that it's maybe been down here for too long and usually they don't give you a chance to buy the bottom this many times, but with everything starting to move higher, you're at support and support a support until it's broken.
So if you're taking the shot, stop yourself out. And the unders you know, well, I'd stop on under 17, maybe 1750. I'll let you do that. You're not doing that one. Okay, fair enough. No tattoos. Okay. A few people I've been everyday, we get asked about so far. It's basically almost back in my cost base is now I'm like less than a dollar away.
Uh, so come back unless you're an AIG today, there is not okay, man. It was on mad money. He gave six fintechs and then he said, you know, the, the small one or the, you know, the one that he was really, he, he pumped it pretty hard. Actually it wasn't even training up. What's that Spencer, that only works when it's only in an uptrend, he got on it.
And I watched it go from 19 to 1950 during a segment. So he had six FinTech stocks that he thought, you know, the banks of the future. And so if I was one of them, he said, what square PayPal. They both ripped on it. And then he had upstart in there. He had a firm in there. It was the other one. And then he finished with sofa.
And so if I, from 19 to 1950 on his segment, you can move stocks. Uh, it was pesky at 19. That was the level I gave yesterday. And, uh, now it obliterated it so far. So now if you want to buy it, that would have been one of the fun to trade during the day. You know, if it opens up at 19, 19 0 2. Well, yeah, I got the 1931 yesterday, so, oh no.
Pre-market height, 1980. And I got nothing in here. Nothing here for you on a monthly, he's got to take out that probably some optionality there probably, you know, you're coming into that. So I would think twenties me, I'm not coming in here. I was in it. I sold it. I, I literally sold this thing. Like, I don't know, like two weeks ago I had the big run.
I bought it at the 14. See the hugging, the hugging, the hugging. I bought it in the mid fourteens. Cause I had that level to lean on it ran 18. Then I had the little pull back. I actually just think I sold this like, like five days ago. So I sold it way wrong. Um, because of the last three days, just blast it off.
So disappointed in myself. It didn't hold this one better, but that's me. I already sell too soon. What about, what about Upwork? I looked at Upwork for a while. Is it still on a breaking out the new highs or? Well, it pulled back a long ways and then he got this ridiculous run for five days. So if you're buying it now, holy macro chase chasing, chasing, chasing this stock a week ago was 45 bucks.
Now it's 50. I'm not buying something that we're in says ran 25% in six days on no news, not the candle you want to see yesterday. Right. And, uh, yeah. Yeah. I mean, if it holds 56, 16, I was low. Boom. But, uh, after that it looks like yellow drop off 54 66. So that's what you're looking at, that this may, that high now that 59 46, that just looks so far away now, you know?
So I can't, can't give you a good level on the upside high, close to the moon was yesterday at 56 60 Garmin here, stock. That just always goes up. What's it to you? I haven't looked up. It's not going up lately. Garmin, the monster stock that this has been, and I mean, monster 2016, $40, you're looking at a stock that's one, a 400% and better than five years, the stock has been an absolute monster.
It's a pullback. You gotta set up lower. The move a hundred fifty, two fifty are not far off the lower, the move you can take a shot at. The problem is you do have some overhead supply from all the bag holders in the last month and a half. So it's not easy. Slaton. It gets easier above one 60 and tell them guilty until proven innocent.
They do a good job, Joel. Yeah. Excellent on that one. Yep. I little early to look for a 50% bounce in this one, but a good support support, a support until it's taken out 1 53 29, 1 53 33 too low, same area. No. I here's one we haven't talked about for awhile and phase II, NPH and phase energy who brought this up, which one of the best of breeds who did the short report on in phase spruce point, but don't quote, Rach or report.
That was the 40 writers. So that's, I got 170 now. So hopefully you weren't following natural report. I'm not sure who it was. We were guessing spruce point. It might not have been, but I'll tell you this one has just been one of the best solar stocks. So
I don't know, but it wasn't very spruce point where you said that the other day it wasn't spruce point. He would keep picking on spruce, sorry, spruce point a S E D G N E N P H have been best of breed and solar sector for a long time. I don't know if that changes any time soon. I still think I want to be investor in solar stocks.
The problem is they just ran tan. And it was precious. Precious. I had just came to that point. We've missed it. We've missed around here. We got away for a pullback. Now, in my opinion, tan has run in three days from 79 to 80. Oh, that is just a crazy move. Um, I'm still along SunPower. It's one of the only solar stocks I've got left.
I wish I had still had it all, but I sold the trade portion of it. Um, first, so I've been in and out of a few times, I like all these stocks on pullbacks. Yeah. If you're looking for resistance, you're trading up on the under 17,000 shares to highs that contend with 1 77 69. That was your September 3rd high.
That's not far away. And then you got some room up to 180, 31 that was your high on September 2nd ever going to get off the $40 level Juul. No, it's going to be, it's a magnet to it. It can't get away from it. Maybe Monday releases it. Maybe there's some optionality there. I didn't look at it. I'm just assuming there is at the 40, um, Wow.
I just got to say this $40 has just been a magnet. It can't seem to get away from it, but support a support until it's broken. That's my thoughts on hood? Same as yesterday. Same as the day before. Same as last week. 40 is huge. I mean, Mitch was here for a sec, cause you know, mid to like solar magenta, you know, one of the things is we've been talking about relationships, right?
Dennis and Joe, we're going to talk relationships this weekend. And one of the things that I did is I actually use stock odds to confirm my probability, look in solar. Um, if you guys don't know what stock odds, that's definitely check it out. We're going to be there. Ron's done that. Definitely check it out.
Um, but what I liked is that it started pointing up to the probability of FSLR S PWR. Um, I really liked the run chart. If you look at run that, that looks awesome right off the bottom. Um, multiple times already though, I feel like you should have been in three days. That's the hard part D solar's been running with a tough market, right?
And so everyone's looking for pockets of strengths. I think this is one of those, of course, you've got to look for pullbacks now, you know, four day run. You don't want to be jumping in right here, but I definitely say pay attention to solar going into November and December. All right. The last chart, this is the one for me.
This pull up the GLD for a minute. I am, I don't want to miss this. So I know a couple of days ago, so I know, I know. I know. So I, now I, I missed that yesterday clearly. So now I wait for the pullback, right? We set up the, and silver go rewind. The tape was 2090. And I said, if you want to do it, I didn't do it.
I wish I went up, but I said, stop yourself on our 2065 or at risk. It's up almost a buck from there now. SLV, Gold's gonna move similarly. I mean, the setup was there. I think you wait for a little pullback, cause I don't like to chase anything. It's not a huge move. I just don't like to chase anything and gold just doesn't seem to move $30 and go straight up.
Maybe it goes another just keeps going straight up. It is the textbook inflation trade. We talked about this too. And then we're saying, is there a possible catch up trade here maybe, but we're saying, we're also saying it has been performing why? I don't know why and that's why I laid off of it. But right now the inflation trade is getting more and more.
So as people talk about inflation, you start to see obviously, you know, a movement up here, um, in gold and silver is the inflation trade from the textbook, whether or not it's going to perform. I am still skeptical. I w we got to wrap it up. It's nine o'clock. The Benzinga cannabis Kappa conference is going live right now, Dennis.
Congratulations to you. When you're first plays Edmonton Oilers. You're in for blew it last night, but then they went Smith who that's all that matters. I'll catch you later at the close today, correct? No ethic clothes today. Are you around here? You want to do out to close with me on a pre-market prep.com you out there?
Show me. Okay. All right. I'm going to have more. We missed a lot of symbols. Like what's this happened? You didn't invite me. That's okay.
Anyway, that's fine. Everyone hit that, like ticker. All right. Hit that like button, please. And thank you. Have a good rest of your day. Benzinga cannabis. Capital conference is going live right now in person. It's so exciting. Stay tuned for that.
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