The Global Signal Alliances Under Strain: World Order, NATO, and Insights from Wheat at War
Jan 28, 2026
Dr. Paul Poast, a University of Chicago political scientist and author of Wheat at War, explores shifting global order and alliance politics. He discusses the move to multipolarity and NATO’s evolving role. He examines social media’s impact on perceptions, the Indo-Pacific’s rising importance, predictability of conflicts, and how crises produce supranational institutions.
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Indo-Pacific As Central Theater
- The Indo-Pacific is becoming the central theater of great-power competition focused on China.
- The U.S. must reallocate resources there or risk strategic disadvantage in the region.
Conflicts Rarely Come From Nowhere
- Geopolitical shocks are seldom true 'black swans' because conflicts usually build from frozen disputes.
- Monitoring frozen conflicts and escalation dynamics improves forecasting of likely crises.
NATO's Reinforced Relevance
- NATO's role in Ukraine confirmed its continued relevance by rallying members and prompting expansion.
- Ukraine's contested status made full NATO membership politically risky long before 2022.
