Daniel Davis Deep Dive Forces Trying to Push Trump Back nto War /Lt Col Daniel Davis
May 8, 2026
A concise look at rising pressures pushing the U.S. toward conflict with Iran and the strategic choices on the table. Discussion of the risks if Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and the economic fallout for oil, fertilizer, and food supply. Examination of U.S. strikes, retaliation risks, and competing narratives about who started recent attacks. Arguments for declaring victory and withdrawing to avoid wider regional catastrophe.
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Seizing The Strait Was Predictable
- Daniel Davis argues the Iran blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was predictable and results from starting a war that left Iran a strategic incentive to seize the waterway.
- He cites prior intelligence and simulations warning Iran would seize the strait and notes Iran now calls it the Persian Gulf Straits Authority and is enforcing tolls and attacks.
Missile Defense Is A Math Problem
- Davis highlights the math problem of missile defense: interceptors are finite so a sufficient Iranian swarm could overwhelm U.S. ship defenses.
- He notes repeated small attacks so far were intercepted, but larger salvoes could exhaust interceptors and leave ships vulnerable.
Declare Victory And Extract Forces
- Davis presents three options for Trump: double down militarily, maintain blockade to try to outlast Iran, or declare victory and withdraw.
- He argues declaring victory and leaving is the least damaging option given limited chances of military success.