🐢 Turtle Talk Podcast: Episode 007 – Fractals, Expectancy, and Survival

Join Rich, Adam, and Jerry as they dive deep into the structures that shape systematic trend following. No guests this month — just the three of us tackling big themes, fresh charts, and audience questions that get right to the heart of Outlier Hunting.

In this episode:

📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – August review: classic trend bounces back, but what lies beneath the numbers?
📈 What’s Moved the Needle – JGBs, Copper (US & LME), Gold, Silver, and Live Cattle take center stage.
🔍 Turtle Tidbits – Five heavyweight topics:

• Are markets fractal and are outliers inevitable?

• Expectancy vs Path Dependence – what really matters for survival?

• The Cut Back Rule – Jerry explains why it’s essential.

• Loose Pants – Jerry’s metaphor for risk and flexibility.

• High-Vol Trend Following – unpacking Seeking Alpha’s case for why it might be the most valuable alternative investment.

💌 Shell Mail (Listener Q&A) – Audience questions on diversification sizing, lost decades in trend following, and quantifying fat-tailed events.

🎙️ Plus: Rich defends path dependence, Adam challenges mandate mixing, and Jerry sharpens his myth-busting sword.

📚 Special Announcement:
Our new book The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide is being released next week! It’s the flagship collection of philosophy, process, and practice behind the Aussie Turtles® approach. Stay tuned @ https://www.aussieturtles.com/ for launch details.

🌐 Episode resources and reports discussed:

• Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – August 2025: https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-august-2025/

• Fractals, Diversification and the Myth of Dilution: https://atstradingsolutions.com/fractals-diversification-and-the-myth-of-dilution/

• Are Markets Fractal? The Case for Maximum Diversification: https://atstradingsolutions.com/are-markets-fractal-the-case-for-maximum-diversification/

• Expectancy vs Survival: Why the Outlier Hunter Thinks Differently: https://atstradingsolutions.com/expectancy-vs-survival-why-the-outlier-hunter-thinks-differently/

• Beyond Expectancy: Protecting the Path of the Outlier Hunter: https://atstradingsolutions.com/beyond-expectancy-protecting-the-path-of-the-outlier-hunter/

• High-Vol Trend Following – Most Valuable Alternative Investment: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4823294-high-vol-trend-following-most-valuable-alternative-investment

📩 Got questions for the pod? Send them in:
🔗 https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact

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