The Compound and Friends

Worst Quarter in 4 Years, Oil vs Stocks, Win Rates From Buying Corrections, the Case for T and VZ

105 snips
Mar 31, 2026
They break down a brutal quarter and the market bounce that followed. Discussions cover oil swings tied to Iran headlines and tech and software rebounds. They debate valuation multiples, sector leadership, and how mega-cap names moved markets. Historical win rates after big corrections get attention. A defensive case for AT&T and Verizon is pitched amid rising yields and 60/40 pain.
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ADVICE

Buy Quality Consumer Financials After Indiscriminate Drops

  • Buy quality consumer-financial names after indiscriminate selloffs when fundamentals remain intact.
  • Michael calls American Express a fat pitch after a ~25% drop despite healthy travel demand cited by Delta's CEO.
INSIGHT

Memory Stocks Peak With Pricing Not Demand

  • Memory and semiconductor stocks often peak with pricing cycles, not demand, which deceives investors into buying tops.
  • Michael notes Micron's huge revenue gains but warns valuations are cyclical and earnings can quickly evaporate.
INSIGHT

Asset Managers Are Proxies For Market Direction

  • Giant asset managers trade like market proxies; their shares often move with broad market performance rather than idiosyncratic moat improvements.
  • Josh says BlackRock's equity behaves as a proxy for market strength because AUM fees correlate with asset prices.
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