"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis Surveying 2,700+ AI Researchers on the Industry's Future with Katja Grace of AI Impacts
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Mar 21, 2024 Katja Grace, Cofounder and Lead Researcher at AI Impacts, shares insights from a comprehensive survey involving over 2,700 AI researchers. She discusses the diverse predictions about AI’s future and highlights concerns about safety and interpretability. The conversation reveals a trend of optimism among researchers but also addresses the complexities of forecasting advancements. Katja emphasizes the importance of understanding public skepticism and the need for clear communication around AI capabilities and risks.
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Decreasing Timelines
- Timelines for HLMI and FAOL decreased significantly between the 2022 and 2023 surveys.
- HLMI dropped by a decade, while FAOL dropped by several decades.
AI Coding Abilities
- AI's ability to write code, like quicksort algorithms, is predicted to happen relatively soon.
- Despite existing examples, some researchers still predict later timelines, possibly due to varying interpretations or standards.
AI Task Timelines
- Most surveyed researchers predict a 50% chance of most AI tasks being achievable within 10 years.
- This contrasts with more optimistic timelines from leading AI lab heads.