Run the Numbers

How AI Changes Your P&L with Fred Havemeyer of Macquarie

10 snips
Mar 21, 2024
Exploring AI's impact on CFO roles, company valuations, and metrics used by operators vs bankers. Delving into AI's productivity gains, revenue potential of Microsoft 365 co-pilot, challenges in cloud cost management, and financial blunders. Discussing AI pricing models, infrastructure optimization impact on margins, and risks of AI technology for businesses.
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INSIGHT

Metric Choice Is A Storyteller's Tool

  • Metric choices are storytelling tools that signal whether a company is growth, profit, or market-share focused.
  • Fred prefers NRR and ARR plus non-GAAP-free-cash-flow measures to communicate durable software value to investors.
ADVICE

Always Provide ARR And Cash Flow Targets To Analysts

  • Give sell-side analysts clear top-line and cashflow metrics because they feed DCFs and qualitative adjustments.
  • Provide ARR and a credible cash flow target so analysts can model a 10-year valuation with less guesswork.
INSIGHT

AI Raises Low Performers More Than Creates Superstars

  • Early empirical studies show meaningful productivity uplifts from generative AI, often 30–50% in roles like customer service and programming.
  • The biggest gains appear among lower-performing or newer employees who get pulled up toward the median, not universal 10x stars.
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