Rebel Capitalist News OMG...Did You See The New GDP Numbers?
Mar 17, 2026
They dig into a sharp downward revision to Q4 GDP and which components drove the change. Discussion covers divergent labor market signals and doubts about job data. They warn about private credit stress, rising adjustable-rate mortgages, and 2008 parallels. They explore AI's potential to disrupt white-collar work and the risk of a feedback loop between asset prices, credit, oil, and demand.
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GDP Revision Halves Fourth Quarter Growth
- Real GDP for Q4 2025 was revised sharply down from 1.4% to 0.7%, halving the initial print.
- George Gammon ties the revision to broad weakness: consumer spending, investment, exports and imports all came in worse than first reported.
GDP And Jobs Cannot Diverge Indefinitely
- GDP and the labor market are diverging and both cannot be correct long term.
- Gammon argues one must give: either jobs rebound sharply or GDP will be revised down to reflect weak payrolls, and history favors downward GDP revisions.
Nominal GDP And Durable Goods Weakness
- Revisions showed nominal GDP trimmed from 5.1% to 4.5% and durable goods orders missed expectations (0.0% vs 1.3% expected).
- Gammon notes government spending declined and both exports and imports were weaker than first reported, dragging growth.