"I've Not Seen This Level Of Market Speculation Since 1999" | Lance Roberts

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Jul 12, 2025

Lance Roberts, a seasoned portfolio manager and chief investment strategist at RIA Advisors, dives into today’s speculative market, drawing parallels to the 1999 dot-com era. He discusses the risks associated with retail investors' increasing reliance on leveraged ETFs and call options. As Q2 earnings season approaches, Lance paints a picture of market expectations and the potential for significant adjustments based on company performances. He emphasizes the need for cautious investing amid the current prevailing optimism that may not reflect economic reality.

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ANECDOTE

Unexpected Fan Encounter Abroad

Lance met a fan named Joseph in Lincoln, UK, who watches his and Adam’s videos.
They found it surprising and encouraging to connect with viewers internationally.

INSIGHT

New Investors Fuel Long Rallies

The 1990s bull market lasted for about a decade fueled by a huge influx of new investors.
Modern technology like Robinhood accelerates investor participation but prolongs bull markets similarly.

INSIGHT

Earnings Estimates: Slow Cuts vs Shocks

Q2 earnings estimates have been significantly cut but remain optimistic for a rebound next quarter.
Markets tolerate gradual earnings downgrades but react sharply when unexpected negative news forces quick revisions.

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Investors appear just blind to risk at this point.Portfolio manager Lance Roberts says he hasn't seen this high degree of speculation in the markets since 1999.At some point, the chickens will likely come back to roost. But in the near term, the essential question investors need to address is: How much higher will the rally continue?Lance and I discuss the odds, as well as what to expect from the start of Q2 earnings season, whether the Fed will cut soon and if that will be a "sell the news event". As always, we close by discussing Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything the mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#earnings #bullmarket #ratecut _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.