The Fourcast Who is winning the war in the Middle East?
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Mar 17, 2026 
Muhanad Saloum, Doha-based scholar of Gulf politics and Iran’s networks, and Emile Hokayem, regional security analyst at IISS, discuss who is gaining advantage after weeks of strikes. They debate Iran’s strategic leverage, the impact of targeted leadership attacks, threats to the Strait of Hormuz, limits to Iran’s power projection, Gulf states’ responses, and prospects for a regional deal.
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Military Wins Don't Guarantee Strategic Victory
- No clear winner has emerged; military metrics favour the US and Israel but strategic leverage may lie with Iran.
- Emile Hokayem argues Iran gains leverage by imposing a new status quo in the Strait of Hormuz despite suffering heavy losses.
Leadership Decapitation Weakens Iran's Regional Reach
- The US and Israel have decapitated large parts of Iran's leadership and degraded its military capability, but those gains may not translate into lasting strategic control.
- Muhanad Saloum highlights sustained assassinations and argues Iran is on the back foot militarily and politically.
Credible Risk Can Replace Physical Control Of Shipping Lanes
- Iran's strategic effect comes from posing credible risk to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz rather than holding it physically.
- Emile Hokayem explains that complicating maritime operations is enough to impose a new global economic status quo.