AI and Jobs: What Do We Really Know?

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May 16, 2025

In this enlightening conversation, Nathan Goldschlag, Research Director at the Economic Innovation Group, dives into the intricate relationship between AI and employment. He shares insights from his extensive research on how AI is being embraced by various industries and its potential to enhance productivity. The discussion touches on the importance of complementary skills, the changing landscape for job seekers, and the economic implications of AI advancements. Goldschlag also highlights the ongoing challenges and debates surrounding worker displacement and the future of work.

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INSIGHT

IQ Less Key Than Thought

Raw intelligence has diminishing returns in the labor market compared to social and complementary skills.
As AI increases intelligence supply, human value shifts toward judgment, taste, and integrating skills.

INSIGHT

Age Challenges with AI Adoption

Middle-aged workers around 40 may face challenges integrating AI due to career stage and adaptability.
Younger people entering evolving education systems also risk skill mismatches as AI changes work.

INSIGHT

Individual vs Firm AI Use Differs

Person-level AI use surveys show much higher usage than firm-level AI adoption stats.
Individual incidental use doesn't always reflect firm AI use in goods or services production.

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Will artificial intelligence help you do your job, or will it just straight-up do your job and leave you unemployable?

Or will the future bring something else entirely — either between those two extremes or a world that we simply cannot imagine yet? And are we already starting to see signs of that future emerging?

On this episode of The New Bazaar, Cardiff is joined by economist Nathan Goldschlag, Research Director at the Economic Innovation Group. Until recently, Nathan was Principal Economist at the U.S. Census Bureau’s Center for Economic Studies, where among other things he led research on the impact of technology, including AI, on the economy. Any worthwhile list of the world’s best economists on the subject of AI and work would have to include him.

Cardiff and Nathan go through Nathan’s own research* and also filter out the megaton of nonsense on the topic and discuss some of the work done by others — research, essays, meanderings — that they think is actually worth sharing with listeners.

They discuss, among other things:

How many businesses are now using AI to produce goods and services
How have things changed since the launch and popularization of large language models
Economic growth consequences of AI
Whether “learn to code” is still good advice
The skills that still matter
To steer or not to steer the AI future

* Nathan’s research on AI was done in collaboration with a large team of researchers at the Center for Economic Studies at the U.S. Census Bureau including Emin Dinlersoz, Lucia Foster, David Beede, John Haltiwanger, Zach Kroff, Nikolas Zolas, Gary Anderson, and Eric Childress, along with program area partners including Kathryn Bonney, Cory Breaux, Cathy Buffington, and Keith Savage, as well as academic partners including Daron Acemoglu, Erik Brynjolfsson, Kristina McElheran, and Pascual Restrepo.

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