Increments #70 - ... and Bayes Bites Back (w/ Richard Meadows)
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Jul 9, 2024 Richard Meadows, a finance journalist and author of "Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World," dives into the nuances of Bayesian reasoning. He questions whether Bayesian rationality is the best way to navigate uncertainty and discusses its cultural influence in contrast to other approaches. The conversation touches on the differences between truth and certainty, the nature of evidence in science, and the importance of open-mindedness in belief formation. Meadows challenges listeners to rethink their views and engage with these complex ideas.
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Appreciation for EA and Bayesian Rationality
- Ben expresses sympathy for EA's core idea: making morality central and helping others effectively.
- He also admires the epistemic humility fostered by Bayesian rationality, particularly by Scott Alexander.
Agreement on Bayesian Criticisms
- Meadows agrees with the criticism that assigning 50% probability to everything is annoying.
- He also agrees that using Bayes' theorem is often impractical and emphasizes there's no clear distinction between subjective and frequentist probabilities.
Lab Leak Debate Example
- The hosts discuss Scott Alexander's blog post about the lab leak debate, highlighting the difficulties of applying Bayesianism in complex situations.
- Meadows points out how the debate focused on the object-level question rather than the methodology.
