AI Is Not Improving Productivity: Nobel Laureate Daron Acemoglu

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Feb 24, 2026

Daron Acemoglu, MIT institute professor and Nobel Prize–winning economist, argues technology’s path is shaped by choices, not fate. He explores automation versus complementary new tasks. He examines centralization in large language models and why incentives and regulation matter for steering AI toward pro-worker, domain-specific designs.

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INSIGHT

Technology Futures Depend On Human Choices

Technology's direction is chosen by society, not predetermined.
Daron Acemoglu argues AI offers multiple futures and our choices determine winners, losers, productivity, and inequality.

INSIGHT

Automation Versus New Tasks Drives Inequality

Two technological poles matter: automation that replaces tasks and new-task creation that complements workers.
Automation benefits capital owners, while new tasks historically raised productivity, wages, and employment.

INSIGHT

AI Centralization Reduces Human Participation

Information centralization is a second crucial axis: centralizing models reduce decentralized human participation.
Daron contrasts personal computing's decentralization with large language models that aim to centralize humanity's information.

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In this bonus episode, Nobel Prize-winning economist Daron Acemoglu joins Sam to challenge some of the most common assumptions about artificial intelligence’s future. Drawing on his book Power and Progress, Daron argues that technology doesn’t have a fixed destiny — and that today’s choices will determine whether AI boosts workers or simply accelerates automation and inequality. He makes a case for focusing on new tasks that complement human skills, rather than replacing them, and warns that current incentives push AI toward centralization and automation by default. The conversation tackles productivity myths, reliability risks, and why regulation should proactively steer AI toward social good. Read the episode transcript here.

Guest bio:

Daron Acemoglu is an institute professor at MIT, faculty codirector of the James M. and Cathleen D. Stone Center on Inequality and Shaping the Future of Work, and a research affiliate at MIT’s newly established Blueprint Labs. He is an elected fellow of the National Academy of Sciences, American Philosophical Society, the British Academy of Sciences, the Turkish Academy of Sciences, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Econometric Society, the European Economic Association, and the Society of Labor Economists. He is also a member of the Group of Thirty. He has authored six books, including Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity with Simon Johnson. His work in economics has been recognized around the world, notably with the Nobel Prize in economic sciences, along with co-laureates Johnson and James A. Robinson, in 2024.

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