The Nonlinear Library EA - An exhaustive list of cosmic threats by JordanStone
Dec 5, 2023
10:48
Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: An exhaustive list of cosmic threats, published by JordanStone on December 5, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum.
Toby Ord covers 'Asteroids and Comets' and 'Stellar Explosions' in The Precipice. But I thought it would be useful to provide an up-to-date and exhaustive list of all cosmic threats. I'm defining cosmic threat here as any existential risk potentially arising from space. I think this list may be useful for 3 main reasons:
New cosmic threats are discovered frequently. So it's plausible that future cause areas could pop out of this space. I think that keeping an eye on it should help identify areas that may need research. Though it should be noted that some of the risks are totally impossible to protect against at this point (e.g. a rogue planet entering our solar system).
Putting all of the cosmic threats together in one place could reveal that cosmic threats are more important than previously thought, or provide a good intro for someone interested in working in this space.
There is momentum in existential risk reduction from outer space, with great powers (Russia, USA, China, India, Europe) already collaborating on asteroid impact risk. So harnessing that momentum to tackle some more of the risks on this list could be really tractable and may lead to collaboration on other x-risks like AI, biotech and nuclear.
I will list each cosmic threat, provide a brief explanation, and find the best evidence I can to provide severity and probability estimates for each. Enjoy :)
I'll use this format:
Cosmic Threat [Severity of worst case scenario /10] [Probability of that scenario occurring in the next 100 years] Explanation of threat
Explanation of rationale and approach
Severity estimates
For the severity, 10 is the extinction of all intelligent life on Earth, and 0 is a fart in the wind. It was difficult to pin down one number for threats with multiple outcomes (e.g. asteroids have different sizes). So the severity estimates are for the worst-case scenarios for each cosmic threat, and the probability estimate corresponds to that scenario.
Probability estimates
Probabilities are presented as % chance of that scenario occurring in the next 100 years. I have taken probabilities from the literature and converted values to normalise them as a probability of their occurrence within the next 100 years (as a %). This isn't a perfect way to do it, but I prioritised getting a general understanding of their probability, rather than numbers that are hard to imagine. When the severity or likelihood is unclear or not researched well enough, I've written 'unknown'.
I'm trying my best to ignore reasoning along the lines of "if it hasn't happened before, then it very likely won't happen ever or is extremely rare" because of the anthropic principle. Our view of past events on Earth is biased towards a world that has allowed humanity to evolve, which likely required a few billion years of stable-ish conditions. So it is likely that we have just been lucky in the past, where no cosmic threats have disturbed Earth's habitability so extremely as to set back life's evolution by billions of years (not even the worst mass extinction ever at the Permian-Triassic boundary did this, as reptiles survived).
An Exhaustive List of Cosmic Threats
Format:
Cosmic Threat [Severity of worst case scenario /10] [Probability of that scenario occurring in the next 100 years] Explanation of threat
Solar flares [4/10] [1%]. Electromagnetic radiation erupts from the surface of the sun. Solar flares occur fairly regularly and cause minor impacts, mainly on communications. A large solar flare has the potential to cause electrical grids to fail, damage satellites, disrupt radio signals, cause increased radiation influx, destroy data storage devices, cause navigation errors, and permanently damage scientific eq...
Toby Ord covers 'Asteroids and Comets' and 'Stellar Explosions' in The Precipice. But I thought it would be useful to provide an up-to-date and exhaustive list of all cosmic threats. I'm defining cosmic threat here as any existential risk potentially arising from space. I think this list may be useful for 3 main reasons:
New cosmic threats are discovered frequently. So it's plausible that future cause areas could pop out of this space. I think that keeping an eye on it should help identify areas that may need research. Though it should be noted that some of the risks are totally impossible to protect against at this point (e.g. a rogue planet entering our solar system).
Putting all of the cosmic threats together in one place could reveal that cosmic threats are more important than previously thought, or provide a good intro for someone interested in working in this space.
There is momentum in existential risk reduction from outer space, with great powers (Russia, USA, China, India, Europe) already collaborating on asteroid impact risk. So harnessing that momentum to tackle some more of the risks on this list could be really tractable and may lead to collaboration on other x-risks like AI, biotech and nuclear.
I will list each cosmic threat, provide a brief explanation, and find the best evidence I can to provide severity and probability estimates for each. Enjoy :)
I'll use this format:
Cosmic Threat [Severity of worst case scenario /10] [Probability of that scenario occurring in the next 100 years] Explanation of threat
Explanation of rationale and approach
Severity estimates
For the severity, 10 is the extinction of all intelligent life on Earth, and 0 is a fart in the wind. It was difficult to pin down one number for threats with multiple outcomes (e.g. asteroids have different sizes). So the severity estimates are for the worst-case scenarios for each cosmic threat, and the probability estimate corresponds to that scenario.
Probability estimates
Probabilities are presented as % chance of that scenario occurring in the next 100 years. I have taken probabilities from the literature and converted values to normalise them as a probability of their occurrence within the next 100 years (as a %). This isn't a perfect way to do it, but I prioritised getting a general understanding of their probability, rather than numbers that are hard to imagine. When the severity or likelihood is unclear or not researched well enough, I've written 'unknown'.
I'm trying my best to ignore reasoning along the lines of "if it hasn't happened before, then it very likely won't happen ever or is extremely rare" because of the anthropic principle. Our view of past events on Earth is biased towards a world that has allowed humanity to evolve, which likely required a few billion years of stable-ish conditions. So it is likely that we have just been lucky in the past, where no cosmic threats have disturbed Earth's habitability so extremely as to set back life's evolution by billions of years (not even the worst mass extinction ever at the Permian-Triassic boundary did this, as reptiles survived).
An Exhaustive List of Cosmic Threats
Format:
Cosmic Threat [Severity of worst case scenario /10] [Probability of that scenario occurring in the next 100 years] Explanation of threat
Solar flares [4/10] [1%]. Electromagnetic radiation erupts from the surface of the sun. Solar flares occur fairly regularly and cause minor impacts, mainly on communications. A large solar flare has the potential to cause electrical grids to fail, damage satellites, disrupt radio signals, cause increased radiation influx, destroy data storage devices, cause navigation errors, and permanently damage scientific eq...