This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler Trump’s deadly Iran gamble – Emergencycast with Paul Salem in Beirut
Mar 2, 2026
Paul Salem, senior fellow and founder of the Carnegie Middle East Center, offers expert analysis on regional security. He explains why the strike came now and weighs US aims of regime change against Israel’s push for destruction. He maps proxy responses across the region and explores Iran’s institutional resilience and the risks of chaos if the country is dismantled.
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Regime Change Requires A Transition Plan
- Regime change has two separate problems: removing leaders and managing a transition, and bombing alone rarely achieves both.
- Paul Salem contrasts Libya and Iraq to show removal without a planned transition leads to instability.
Iran's Institutions Still Functioning
- Despite heavy strikes and the supreme leader's death, Iran's institutions remain functioning with an interim council and assembly of experts.
- Paul Salem stresses the regime shows resilience and isn't collapsing within the first days of war.
Gulf States Face Expensive Air Defense Burden
- Gulf states are now militarily defending their skies with costly US-made air defenses while facing cheap Iranian missiles and drones.
- Paul Salem notes this undermines the Gulf economic model built on perceived safety and raises political fury at Iran.