Concerns over US Growth as US Tariffs Appear More Targeted

25 snips

Mar 24, 2025

Guest

Joe Lavorgna

Guest

Liz Ann Sonders

Joe Lavorgna, Chief Economist at SMBC Nikko Securities and former Trump economic advisor, passionately argues that new targeted tariffs could herald a 'Golden Age' for the U.S. economy without causing inflation. He outlines the implications of Trump’s upcoming announcements on trade relations. Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, shares her insights on the recession risks and market anxieties tied to these tariffs, while dissecting the contrasting fortunes of tech stocks versus broader market indices. A lively discussion on navigating economic uncertainty unfolds.

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INSIGHT

Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty

Tariffs, while potentially raising revenue, also introduce economic uncertainty.
The lack of clarity about tariff specifics and spending cuts makes economic forecasting difficult.

INSIGHT

CBO Scoring Critique

CBO scoring is flawed because it assumes unrealistic economic growth rates, leading to inaccurate revenue projections.
Assuming revenue increases with a looming tax hike is misplaced, given current economic conditions.

INSIGHT

Factor-Focused Investing

Instead of going to cash, maintaining a factor-focused approach, particularly on low volatility, is recommended for navigating current market conditions.
Sector-specific calls are difficult due to volatility; factor-level performance is more consistent.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMarch 24th, 2025
Featuring:

1) Joe Lavorgna, Chief Economist at SMBC Nikko Securities and former Trump economic advisor, on why he believes Trump's tariff initiatives will ultimately prove bullish for the US economy, won't be inflationary, and could usher in a new economic "Golden Age" in the US. President Trump is preparing to announce "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, targeting countries that have tariffs or barriers on US goods, but excluding some nations and blocs. The tariffs are expected to take effect immediately and may strain ties with allied nations, but the administration is not planning separate sectoral-specific tariffs at the same event.

2) Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins for an extended discussion on fears of a US recession and the outlook for equities. Markets are still on edge ahead of Trump’s April 2 deadline to impose reciprocal tariffs on a raft of other countries, but officials familiar with the matter said the announcement is shaping up to be more targeted than previously thought.

3) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, on the latest DC headlines and Congress' role in US trade policy amid looming tariffs and updates on negotiations over the war in Ukraine. US and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia for closed-door talks, following American and Ukrainian teams' discussions the previous day. The talks aim to achieve a ceasefire in the war

4) Stephen Trent, Analyst at Citi, discusses the outlook for individual US airlines in 2025 after recent poor guidance. American Airlines and Delta Air Lines have slashed their financial forecasts, citing a rapid reversal of demand trends and a broad weakness in consumer spending. Poor recent updates from airlines and retailers have added to market sentiment.

5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including young investors' favorite retirement vehicle and the advantage Duke has in the NCAA tournament.

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