Real Wealth Show: Real Estate Investing Podcast Iran Conflict, Tariffs, and AI: J Scott Breaks Down the Economic Risks for Real Estate
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Mar 10, 2026 J Scott, a real estate investor and economic analyst, weighs in on macro risks. He breaks down how the Iran conflict could influence oil, inflation, and rates. He explores tariffs and policy uncertainty dragging business activity. He assesses AI’s long-term effects on jobs, rents, and property values. He also explains why he remains bullish on hard assets and where he’s investing now.
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Conflict Duration Drives Inflation Risk
- Iran's duration determines economic impact more than the initial attacks.
- Short conflict likely causes only tenths of a percent inflation from oil; prolonged war risks sustained supply-chain and energy disruptions that raise inflation and rates.
Oil Spikes Only Modestly Move Inflation
- Oil price spikes have a muted direct effect on headline inflation historically.
- Fed research shows ~0.1–0.15% CPI rise per 10% crude increase, and significant CPI moves require price increases to persist for ~3 months.
Middle East Damage Can Raise U.S. Interest Rates
- Damage to Gulf energy infrastructure can push U.S. rates higher via reduced foreign purchases of U.S. debt.
- If oil exporters sell U.S. bonds to raise cash or stop buying treasuries due to lost dollar inflows, bond yields rise and rates increase.