ChinaTalk Pottinger on Trump 2.0
Feb 14, 2024
In this engaging discussion, Matt Pottinger, former Deputy National Security Advisor and current chair of the China Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, shares his insights on a potential second Trump administration’s approach to China. He delves into Trump's strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan, contrasts it with Biden's policies, and examines the bipartisan support for the ongoing US-China trade conflict. Pottinger also reflects on the political fallout of COVID-19 and his experiences within Trump's National Security Council.
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Trump to Biden Policy Continuity
- Biden's China policy is closer to Trump's than Obama's, suggesting some Trump-era policies were effective.
- Pottinger predicts a second Trump administration would likely prioritize trade and tariffs.
Xi's Influence on Trump's China Policy
- Trump's China policy was shaped by his belief in US trade exploitation.
- Xi Jinping's actions, like undermining Hong Kong's autonomy and mishandling COVID-19, further hardened Trump's stance.
Effective US-China Dialogue
- Prioritize top-level engagement between leaders like Biden and Xi.
- Avoid mid-level dialogues, which China often uses as leverage for unrelated concessions.
