The Energy Transition Show with Chris Nelder

[Episode #272] – Global Energy Crisis 2026

Mar 25, 2026

Rory Johnston, independent oil market analyst and founder of Commodity Context, breaks down a new global energy crisis after attacks closed the Strait of Hormuz. He explains massive supply shortfalls, why strategic oil releases failed to calm markets, the cascading effects on gas, fertilizers and economies, and how this shock could accelerate renewables and reshape winners and losers.

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ANECDOTE

Analysts Were Surprised The War Lasted Longer Than Expected

Rory admits he and markets expected a quick wrap-up and were surprised the war persisted past three weeks.
He recounts Monday volatility when headlines claiming the war was over briefly dropped traders out of positions.

INSIGHT

LNG And Gas Infrastructure Suffer Major Damage Too

Gas markets are hit too: attacks on Iran's South Pars and Qatari facilities threaten ~20% of Qatar's LNG and could remove large LNG volumes for years.
This escalates electricity and fertilizer risks worldwide because gas underpins power and fertilizer production.

INSIGHT

Crisis Will Trigger Long Term Shift Toward Renewables

The crisis will accelerate structural fuel demand decline as energy security concerns boost renewables and electrification, especially across Asia.
Johnston argues shocks convert climate arguments into pragmatic energy security and affordability cases.

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The attacks on Iran by US and Israel have touched off a regional conflict that has resulted in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil and LNG transits, and is doing severe, ongoing damage to oil and gas infrastructure throughout the Persian Gulf. We are now in a new global energy crisis.

IEA coordinated the largest release ever of oil from strategic reserves to calm the oil market, but traders shrugged it off and oil prices kept climbing, because a physical disruption at this scale is totally unprecedented. Even so, veteran oil traders and journalists have warned that the world is still not recognizing the depth of the actual peril it’s in. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol called this crisis “the greatest global energy security threat in history” and said, “I believe the world has not yet well understood the depth of the energy security challenge we are facing.” IEA also admonished governments to take steps to conserve fuel, including urging their citizens to drive more slowly, work from home, take public transport and car sharing, avoid air travel, and switch to electric cooking. The last time IEA called for such wide-ranging demand reduction was in the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo.

The consequences are already cascading well beyond oil: Fertilizer prices have surged 25 to 40 percent, and a similar increase in the price of diesel will flow through to essentially everything, causing “fossilflation.” In response, governments across Asia have begun curbing consumption: Bangladesh is shutting universities early to save power, Thailand and Vietnam are pushing civil servants to work from home, and Myanmar has imposed fuel rationing. And that’s just the beginning.

To help us understand this rapidly-worsening reality, we are joined by Rory Johnston, one of the most widely cited independent oil market analysts, founder of the Commodity Context newsletter, and host of the Oil Ground Up podcast. Johnston, who typically avoids alarmist price calls, says $200 a barrel minimum is now on the table. We discuss why the world’s emergency supply tools aren’t working, where oil prices could go from here, and why this crisis has thrown the world into uncharted territory.

It could take the world years to recover from this…but in that interim, it’s likely to accelerate the energy transition.

To help everyone cut through the fog of war and disinformation, and understand what is happening and how it will affect them, we are publishing this episode without a paywall. So please share it widely.