Saxo Market Call Is the US blundering or playing geostrategic chess?
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Mar 11, 2026 A deep dive into Middle East tensions and how strikes, mines and underwater drones affect oil flows. A look at market moves across equities and credit as energy shocks ripple through yields and risk positioning. Discussion of whether U.S. actions are accidental or deliberate brinkmanship aimed at China and the possibility of a resource-based détente ahead of major diplomatic talks.
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SPR Releases Only Buy You Days
- Strategic reserve releases are large but limited versus Strait throughput, so they only buy days of supply relief.
- Hardy notes the IEA proposal would be the largest ever but may only cover ~9 days versus ~20mbd transiting Hormuz.
Asymmetric Mine Threat From Small Boats
- Iran uses many small boats and possibly unmanned underwater vehicles to threaten mine-laying, complicating straightforward countermeasures.
- Hardy highlights U.S. strikes on idle small craft and unconfirmed UUV capability, implying persistent asymmetric risk.
Importers With Thin Reserves Face Immediate Pain
- Smaller importers are already feeling acute fuel stress, forcing rationing and institutional changes.
- Examples: Pakistan with ~two weeks of reserves and school closures; Bangladesh limiting fuel sales and shutting universities.