Lost Debate Can You Predict a Recession?
May 1, 2026
Tyler Goodspeed, economist and author who led the White House Council of Economic Advisors, challenges the idea that recessions result from built-up excess. He argues downturns come from unpredictable shocks like energy crises, policy mistakes, or global events. The conversation reframes causes, historical patterns back to the 1700s, and what truly makes economies vulnerable.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Conventional Boom Bust Narrative Challenged
- The conventional boom-bust view treats expansions as inherently unsustainable and predicts predictable recessions.
- Tyler Goodspeed tests this using historical data and argues recessions are not inevitable corrections of excess but often follow shocks.
Three Centuries Of Recession Data Matter
- Goodspeed extends analysis back to 1700 and across the US and UK to increase sample size.
- He finds duration and depth of recessions are remarkably constant across centuries and between the UK and US.
Expansion Age Doesn’t Predict Recessions
- If recessions were endogenous, their probability should rise with expansion age and expansion metrics should predict recessions.
- Goodspeed finds none of those predictive relationships in historical data.
