Bits + Bips Amid the Iran War, Here’s Why It’s Time to Be ‘Defensive’ With Your Portfolio
Apr 1, 2026
They unpack how rising oil and bond yields are reshaping policy and markets amid the Iran conflict. They weigh whether escalation is irreversible and why a defensive portfolio stance might make sense. They explore crypto’s resilience, institutional adoption debates, and the Canton versus Ethereum rivalry over real-world assets and permissioned versus permissionless designs.
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Be Defensively Positioned During Geopolitical Shocks
- Position defensively in portfolios until a credible off-ramp to the Iran conflict appears.
- Ram Ahluwalia recommends staying small and holding excess cash because rising oil and 10-year yields threaten risk assets.
Strategic Resolve Trumps Tactical Success
- Strategic wars hinge on political will and global resolve rather than pure tactical superiority.
- Austin Campbell argues control of the Strait of Hormuz is possible but costly, and allies' political will matters for a lasting solution.
Oil Shock and Rising Yields Can Reprice Equities Severely
- A supply-driven oil shock plus higher yields can force a broad repricing of equities and inflation expectations.
- Ram projects a potential 15% S&P correction and continued de-risking from institutions and retail.