Barron's Streetwise GM, Ford, Tesla, and Robo-taxis
Mar 20, 2026
Dan Levy, a Barclays car analyst covering automakers, EVs and autonomous driving, breaks down who benefits as gas prices rise. He discusses the shift to profitable trucks and SUVs. He explores used-car trends, Waymo and robo-taxis, Tesla's AI pivot, and why Barclays prefers GM over Ford.
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Automakers Traded Volume For Much Higher Prices
- The industry shifted from pushing volume to extracting higher prices, trading roughly 1 million U.S. units for $12k–$13k higher average prices today.
- Dan Levy notes average new car prices rose from ~$33k pre-COVID to $45k–$46k while U.S. volume fell from ~17m to ~16m units, benefiting automaker margins.
Higher Oil Hits Costs First And May Later Change Mix
- Rising oil raises both direct supply-chain costs and could eventually shift consumer mix toward more fuel-efficient models, but effects take time to appear.
- Levy cautions higher oil affects resin, transport, and logistics costs and historically correlates with negative mix for large vehicles.
Monitor Mix Signals Before Revising Auto Forecasts
- Watch sales mix and incoming data closely rather than overreacting to a near-term gasoline spike.
- Levy recommends monitoring durable signals (mix, volumes) because short oil moves haven't yet changed his 2024 thesis.