Sp Ep: A Masterclass in Exposure Management, with Emma Watkins, Rupert Atkin and Dickie Whitaker

Nov 22, 2024

Guest

Emma Watkins

Guest

Rupert Atkin

Guest

Dickie Whitaker

In this insightful discussion, Emma Watkins, Head of Exposure Management at Lloyd's, Rupert Atkin, an esteemed underwriting veteran, and Dickie Whitaker, CEO of Oasis Loss Modelling Framework, dive deep into exposure management and catastrophe modeling. They tackle pressing questions about market dominance, the adequacy of executive knowledge, and the dire need for accurate, transferable data. The trio emphasizes the importance of adapting models to evolving climate risks and the significance of collaboration across the industry to enhance understanding and decision-making.

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ANECDOTE

Data Inaccuracies

Inaccurate data input can lead to significant discrepancies between modeled and actual losses.
An example is misclassifying casino barges as mobile homes, resulting in incorrect loss estimations during Hurricane Katrina.

INSIGHT

Lloyd's Approach to Modeling

Lloyd's doesn't license models directly; syndicates model individually, and Lloyd's aggregates their outputs.
This creates a market view of risk, blending nearly 100 different perspectives.

ADVICE

Combining Risk Assessment Approaches

Use both stochastic and deterministic approaches to assess risk, combining model outputs with other tools.
This includes testing models with real-world scenarios like mapping potential losses from a hurricane's path.

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In today’s Episode we are getting to grips with all the key questions surrounding the hugely important issue of exposure management and modelling in our sector.

Models are a core part of our business, but as we have come to rely more and more heavily on their output, many fundamental questions arise.

For instance, how much of a worry should it be that the market is dominated by two very large players?

Or do enough C-suite executives really understand how models work or know the right questions to ask of their exposure management teams?

And are we any closer to finding efficient cross-industry ways of making sure that the exposure data upon which our modelling is based is accurate and easily transferable in digital form?

To assist me in this task are three people with vast experience in attacking these questions from all angles.

Emma Watkins is Head of Exposure Management & Aggregation at Lloyd's and as such has oversight of one of the largest combined books of business anywhere in the world.

Rupert Atkin is an underwriting veteran who has had a long and illustrious career. The Former CEO of Lloyd’s Underwriter Talbot is also a former Deputy Chair of Lloyd’s and Chair of the Lloyd’s Market Association.

Rupert currently serves on multiple boards, including as Chairman of Lloyd’s businesses Ark Managing Agency and Carbon Underwriting as well as a Director at brokers AmWins Group and Alwen Hough Johnson.

Finally Dickie Whitaker is the founder and CEO of the not-for-profit open source modelling platform, the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework.

Dickie can trace his long career back to the foundation of cat modelling firm Eqecat and also spent over a decade in senior roles at reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter. Most recently he founded the open peer-reviewed Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience.

It’s clear our panel is well qualified for the job, but what I enjoyed most about this gathering was the ease and good humour with which my guests took on the subjects in hand.

This could have been a dry and academic affair, but it was absolutely nothing like that. The conversation is lively and positively buzzes with energy.

NOTES:
Oasis LMF has produced a fascinating report Navigating the Storm that makes a great accompaniment to this podcast.

Download it Here