Conclave Markets: The Rise of Leo XIV

Original Publish Date: 5/8/2025

Description: The conclave is over and the prediction markets were dead wrong.

In this episode of History of the Papacy, we dive into the fascinating rise of Cardinal Robert Prevost, now Pope Leo XIV, the first American pope. Just days before his election, he barely registered in the prediction markets. So how did he win in less than five ballots?

We explore how these markets work, why they usually get things right, and why the conclave is one place where money can’t predict the Holy Spirit.

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"Sonatina in C Minor" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)

"Funeral March for Brass" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)

"Crusade Heavy Perfect Loop" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)

Agnus Dei X - Bitter Suite Kevin MacLeaod (incomptech.com)

Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 License
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Begin Transcript:

[00:00:00] Welcome back to the History of the Papacy Podcast, a podcast about the Popes of Rome and Christian Church. Prepare yourself to step behind the ropes and leave the official tour of the story of the Popes and Christianity. I am your host, Steve Gura, and I thank you for joining me on this journey.

Hey everybody, it's Steve here. I recorded this episode about, uh, maybe two days ago, and a lot has changed since that recording. We do have a new Pope, Pope Leo the 14th, who was former Cardinal. Robert Prevost, who is the [00:01:00] first American Pope, or who is the first American pope. We'll get into a lot of the details about this future Pope.

We'll probably do an episode on this Cardinal Prevost, where he came from. There's a lot of interest. Details with his life. We probably won't get into a tremendous amount of detail because there's just so much new information coming out about him, but related to this episode that I recorded before, and I think this, this, uh, you should definitely hang on all the way to the end because it's so interesting.

This whole episode was based around the prediction markets around who would be Pope, and I said it in this episode and I've said it many times. Prediction markets are very accurate in some ways, but I think that it was very inaccurate with this current Pope and just it would be inaccurate with Popes in general because it's such a unique election and that the only data points are the [00:02:00] 140 cardinals who go in, or the X amount of Cardinals will say in future conclaves.

And we just don't know what the politics are. We don't a hundred percent know what the politics are going in, and we know. Basically 0% of what political machinations went on in that enclave. It must have been fascinating because of how quickly they came up with him. It was less than five ballots to get Cardinal Privos to become Pope Leo the 14th.

It's one of the shortest conclaves of all times, only two days to get white smoke. So I think that that is fascinating. So definitely keep listening and let's see a little bit of how these markets worked. I'll just say that going in Cardinal Perlin was up. To 67% and Prevost was [00:03:00] pretty low down there. I don't even think he was on my uh, radar at all.

He was on the poly market in the under 5%. So this will be definitely an interesting pay papacy to watch out for with this young pope, relatively young, not super young. 69 for an elected leader or of any sort or stripe in this era. That's young. So let's, let's check out and think a little bit more about these markets today.

I'm going to address some of the top contenders for the, uh, next Pope. I'm not gonna get too much into the, the detail of each of these Cardinals, because again, there's 140 of them. All of them are in play as. To be the next Pope. So what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna take a little different tack than our friends over at Pontax or Popular History.

Definitely tune [00:04:00] into both of them because they are doing continued coverage as well. Way I'm going to look at it today is I wanna look at some of the, what are these cardinals who are meeting in conclave looking for in the next Pope? And then what I'm also going to look at is. The poly market prediction.

Market website. And what the poly market is, is people literally put their money where their mouth is. They put um, I guess what you might call wagers or their maybe investing in their own money on who they, the next Pope is. Honestly, they don't, most of these people, they're not gonna have any more insider information than you or I do.

They're just predicting who they think the next Pope is. And what I think is valuable about poly market is this was more, this website was more accurate in the 2024 [00:05:00] presidential election than any of the polling and generally. Poly market is very accurate, especially as it gets closer and closer to the actual events, the more accurate it becomes.

Again, there's some problems with the, the nature of. The conclave process because once they're in conclave, these 140 cardinals, a lot of politics breaks down when they're face to face and they're horse trading inside of the inside of the conclave. Somebody could be up, up, up, up, up in the ballots, but they're just not hitting that number, and then the whole conclave starts to switch and they could.

Do a 180 turn that person who on the first initial ballots could have been the top contender, and then they start to lose steam and it [00:06:00] starts swinging towards somebody else. That can very easily happen when these popes. When these cardinals are on lockdown, could this be a quick conclave or could it be a long, drawn, drawn out affair?

We just don't know at this time. Now, before we get too far into the actual, who's the, who are our top contenders? As on poly market. Let's talk a little bit about what these cardinals are actually looking for and what are some of the, the factors at play. This, it really is the, the chest, the 3D chest, the five D chest, if you will, of a conclave.

What, what some of the factors that they're looking for is regionality. Is it going to be somebody from Europe inside of Europe? Is it an, is it an Italian or a Southern European versus the [00:07:00] Germans who have a really powerful block? Is it, are they looking? Are they looking for somebody who is.

Theologically driven from a certain bent. Are they a moderate theologically? Are they liberal? Are they conservative? Are they a moderate conservative or liberal politically? And that politically charged moderate tism or liberalism or conservatism can very much change whether they are depending based on what region they're from.

And then another factor, of course, is the. The person's age, are they looking for a pope that is younger or older? Are they looking for somebody who could be a placeholder? Fra? Pope Francis was Pope for a long time. He made a lot of changes. Are they looking for that cardinal? Who will become Pope, who's gonna be pretty much status quo?

Are they gonna be a [00:08:00] Francis site, so to speak and continue his. Reforms and his changes and his policies, or are they going to look for somebody who's Auntie Francis, who's gonna go back on a lot of the things that he's done? Then there's the, it's sort of the X factor. Most of the popes who are real contenders are, uh, are all Latin, meaning that they're Roman.

Roman and they're vet. But there's also this, uh. The so-called Sury Juris or Sury juris churches that are self-governing autonomous churches within the Roman Catholic Church. They're generally, uh, on the outside they would look like an Eastern Orthodox or an Oriental Orthodox, but they're not in communion with the Orientals or the.

Or the Eastern Orthodox, but externally they look like them and [00:09:00] they have a lot of the same theological bents. None of these guys are really in the running, but it, it could be interesting that they wind up going with one of these. It's kind of an a way outsider possibility, but it's not. Impossible. So let's just talk about region quickly.

Regions, we have the United States, we have South America, Europe. Then Africa and the East China and, uh, China really being the, that 800 pound gorilla in the room, generally speaking, the I. African cardinals are much more theologically conservative than maybe your European cardinals. You've got South America who many of their cardinals are much more.

[00:10:00] Liberal politically and liberal, more liberal on the theological bent America, a real mixed bag. You have some very conservatively political and conservatively theological cardinals mixed in with some very liberal on both political and theological. Issues Europe. Again, a a mixed bag, but generally more liberal theologically and a mixture of liberal conserv or conservative politically.

Now talking about theologically, you have your conservatives, your liberals, and your moderates, and your moderates. It's not like they're 50 50. A lot of times they don't have a a, they haven't drawn stark lines either liberal or conservative, or they do [00:11:00] have a mixed bag of both opinions. I. As far as somebody liberally, theologically, they're gonna be people who are more for remarriage, which was always a big no-no in the, uh, in the Catholic church where if you got divorced and you're not.

You haven't been, your marriage wasn't a nulled in an official church capacity. These people, people, these laypeople who were married and divorced, were not allowed to get communion. They were essentially ex-communicated. So there's a lot of cardinals who wanna liberalize that. You have liberals who want to be ecumenical, meaning they wanna have strong ties and maybe even form communion again with some of the Protestant groups or some of the Eastern Orthodox and I.

Oriental Orthodox [00:12:00] churches, they want much tighter, much tighter connections with these other churches that are not in communion with Rome. Conservatively, uh minded Cardinals want to be much stricter on those issues and they don't wanna. Necessarily have stronger ecumenical relationships with the other churches, or if the other churches wanna have relations with the Catholic church, they're gonna have to become Catholic and fall in line with Catholic Church dogmas.

There's this big issue of the ordination of women. Liberals are leaning more towards the ordination of women. Maybe not full, full-blown priests, but maybe women, deacons. The conservatives are really against that. Then you have the issue of the Latin mass and the Latin mass is a. Huge [00:13:00] issue. Pope Francis the co, the Council of Vatican ii, all the way back in the sixties kind of dialed back and went back on the traditional Latin mass.

And what we should really just say is the traditional Latin mass is not just saying the mass in Latin. There's a whole. Environment around that, where the people who are into the traditional Latin mass have certain political views, certain theological views. Popes later on, after Vatican two started to give the Latin mass a little bit more consideration.

John Paul two light loosened up and allowed more groups to do this Latin mass. And then Pope Benedict. Loosened it a lot more, but Pope Francis really pulled back the reigns on how much the Latin mass was allowed and he fairly much banded except for certain groups and [00:14:00] certain circumstances. Hey, Steve here.

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Visit patreon.com/history of the papacy and join [00:15:00] today. Now, politically speaking, that's a whole different ball of wax. Like I said, regionally that's gonna change a lot because a conservative in Europe is going to look a lot different than, uh, conservative from say, the United States and what they believe in.

Another big issue is on abortion, generally speaking. Abortion is an ex communicatable offense. If somebody gets an abortion, you're out and there's not a lot of options to get back in. You're more liberally inclined. Uh, pres and Cardinals would be willing to give people who have women who have had an abortion an option to get back into the church.

Then we have this age issue, and age is very, it can be complicated because. Popes do not have to resign. [00:16:00] So you a, a cardinal could be right on the cusp of nine, uh, that 80-year-old of where they're no longer payable, but that cardinal could be 79 and 364 days old. Get elected Pope and still have good 10 years or more left in them and could still make a lot of changes.

But then again, you have Cardinals who are in their fifties. They could have a 20 year reign no problem, and be very transformative. You could have a cardinal get picked who's very administrative minded and doesn't wanna make these big changes and all these different issues that are at play. There's just, we're talking about.

Each, each single category that I've laid out, four, four different, five different categories, that they could be all over the place on these and inside of the conclave. They could be looking for somebody who's a little bit [00:17:00] of this, a little bit of that. It could just get down to the fact that as the, as the ballots start rolling out.

They could go to somebody all together who's not any of these, and the cardinals could go for somebody who's in a way, opposed to them on many of the issues just because of way, the way this balloting inside of the conclave breaks down. There's probably going to be a lot of impetus for them to make it a, a conclave short.

Like just let's boom, boom, boom and get it done with. There could be, but they could also get drawn out and it could take months. We just don't know. Pope Francis was a very quick conclave, not many ballots, but that doesn't necessarily mean the way it, it could play out in this current enclave. There's just so, so many factors at play.

Then the, there's the, also the issue, a big issue [00:18:00] that in a lot of ways Pope Francis pun punted on, he talked a big game, but he didn't do much with the huge issue of the child sex abuse scandal. That's really been rocking the church since the sixties, but it's really played out during Francis' Reign. And Francis in Word took a very hard line, but then he didn't do much.

And a lot of cardinals who are in sitting in conclave right now have very questionable backgrounds on what they, they actually did to fight against this. Major, major scandal. They, uh, some of the cardinals were very loose on who they were, who they clamped down on of priests that were known to have been essentially predators, and some cardinals came down hard on them.[00:19:00]

Just another issue at hand. Now getting into who were the really, the guys who are in the top on Poly Market. We have Pietro Parlin. He's the top contender right now by far on Poly Market. He is. Coming in at 29% chance there's over a million dollars in play at his, uh, election. You can buy a, a share in Cardinal Parlin at uh, 29 cents us.

He's youngish at 70 years old. He's an Italian, he's all of these cardinals. Uh, the thing you can really say is that they're all insiders. They all have top jobs. They are top, um, they're really ingrained into the, the whole. [00:20:00] Administration of the church. You can't really be a cardinal without doing that. He is the Cardinal Bishop of Santi, Simon, uh, GI Angela.

As his, um, official post, he's also a member of the Council of Cardinal Advisors, and he's had a bunch of jobs. He was consecrated. He's actually one of the rare, uh, cardinals that was put in place by Pope. Uh. Pope Benedict. So he's been a, he's been around, even though he is only 70 years old. Most of the, of the vast majority of the Cardinals were actually appointed by Francis at this point.

So this Pietro Harlene, he is definitely one to keep your eye on. Steve here with a quick word from our sponsors. The next one on the list [00:21:00] is coming in at 18% with, um, a, a well over $1.1 million in volume trading volume. So he's being heavily traded. Is Luis San Antonio Tagle and he is a Filipino. Uh, Cardinal.

He seems to lean a little bit more on the theologically and politically liberal side, just from, you know, real broad strokes. And he is very young coming in at 67 years old and he's a. Probably, uh uh, what you could really call is a Francis site, and I think if he became Pope, he would definitely continue Francis' reforms and Francis' policies going forward.

And somebody like him, you could see a easily a 20 year reign out of somebody [00:22:00] like him, maybe 25 year reign, somebody who's only 67 years old. Then we have coming in just a few percent lower Mateo Zui. He is coming in at about eight, $800,000 in volume on poly market. He's another Italian. He's a, uh, straight from Rome again.

Young at 69 years of age. He's, uh, he's the bishop of Bologna, which is a powerful Italian episcopate. Again, I mean, these guys, they're, uh, they're, every single one of the, the top contenders resumes are totally, totally. Insiders, uh, inside of the, the papal, the curia, and the administrative arm of the papacy.

[00:23:00] He's definitely another liberal who, uh, on political issues for sure. And again, he's another one who's probably would very much continue a lot of Francis' policies. Then you have. Coming in at 9%. So these top four that I've mentioned, they are, they're taking up about 70% of poly market. Turkson is an African Pope, or he's a African Cardinal Archbishop of Cape Coast in Africa Again.

Full resume of all these jobs inside of the curia. A lot of these, uh, it, it's very interesting amongst the African Cardinals. Uh, Cardinal Syrah is another one who, uh, he's a little bit lower on the list only coming in at 3%. Where to Turin [00:24:00] is in at 9%, but with a lot of trading volume of over a million dollars.

In volume. The African cardinals are of particular note because they are, the Catholicism is just exploding in Africa and it's bringing in a lot of, uh. New converts who are converting from either different Protestant groups or from the Native African religions, but they're, they're bringing in a lot, a lot of new, new converts.

So that's something to watch because you're really in a, uh, an, an expansion mode. So they have to make certain compromises with native. Internal politics in Africa as well as the particular needs of these, the, these new groups of people who are coming into the church [00:25:00] who. Have their own beliefs, but are with an evangelistic faith.

Some are, when they become Catholics, they're going to be very much, they wanna follow the letter of the law, but also they have their own thoughts on issues. I. And because they are growing so much, they're a force to be reckoned with. And I think that it's not impossible that they could go with an African cardinal just because this is such a powerful and growing block.

And then the last Pope coming in at, or the last PO potential Pope is Pierre Batista Pizza Ball, who is an Italian again. He's leaning in. He's leaning in some ways towards the conservatives, but also the liberals. He is kind of a moderate. But he's really big into interfaith dialogue or ecumenical relationships between the different churches.

Now, [00:26:00] another huge issue that I didn't mention is where cardinals are falling on some of the big hot button issues and. Two of the big hot button international issues in 2025 is the UK Russo Ukrainian War, which really pits in a lot of ways Catholicism versus Eastern Orthodoxy because there's, wow. We could get into a lot of issues here.

Western Ukraine is largely Roman Catholic. Eastern Ukraine is largely amongst, especially amongst the Russian population. Russian Orthodox with deep, deep, deep ties to the Russian Orthodox Church under the patriarch Cial. Then in the middle, stuck in the middle are the what the Eastern Orthodox will call uni eights.

But, [00:27:00] um, they're these, uh, the self-governing. Churches that would on the outside look Eastern Orthodox, but are actually in communion with Rome and they're stuck in the middle. But then you also have Eastern Orthodox who are a part of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church that's split away from the Russian Orthodox Church.

They're accepted by some Eastern Orthodox but not accepted by the Russian Orthodox, so that's a huge issue going on. The popes of Rome have been sort of leaning more towards the, the breakaway Ukrainian Orthodox Church and against the Russian. Orthodox church inside of Ukraine. Huge political issue. Then you have the whole fight in the war that's currently going on in Gaza.

[00:28:00] Now, that mostly focuses mu, most of the Gazen, uh, people are Muslim, but there's a significant Christian population and many of them are tied to the Eastern Orthodox Church. So beyond the religious issues, there's also the humanitarian issues for the Muslims and the Christians inside of Gaza. All issues that we're gonna have to look at, that we look at, uh, as outsiders not sitting inside of the conclave issues that.

Many Catholics find very important to them, be it, uh, revolving around the Russo Ukrainian war and the war that's currently going inside of Gaza. Very important to many people in sitting inside of that conclave, the cardinals and the priest's laity, everybody who's outside of the conclave, [00:29:00] all issues that.

Uh, we should be looking at and thinking about, and that these cardinals will certainly be looking at. So this is my little take on what to look for in the conclave, and definitely send in your comments and look for more. Coverage of conclave of 2025 coming up soon. I will talk to you next time.

 

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