Zero: The Climate Race The Iran war shows why clean energy is the more secure choice
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May 7, 2026 
Emily Grubert, a civil engineer and environmental sociologist at Notre Dame who studies energy transitions, explains the mid-transition where fossil and clean systems clash. She discusses grid tensions like solar curtailment and gas ramping. They cover how war and supply shocks expose fossil vulnerabilities, planning to ease transition pains, and the politics and social safety needed to finish the shift to clean electricity.
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Defining The Mid-Transition
- The mid-transition is when large fossil and non-fossil systems both constrain each other and neither can yet provide all services.
- Emily Grubert estimates this often appears once ~20% penetration by the new system causes operational conflicts like solar curtailment and high gas ramp rates.
Why Costs Rise Then Fall In Transition
- The mid-transition raises costs because systems run in parallel and you pay the fixed costs of both until fossils retire.
- Grubert warns completion lowers costs by eliminating pipelines, inspection and remediation burdens that currently persist.
War Underscores Energy Security Benefits Of Electrification
- Geopolitical shocks like Middle East wars highlight fossil fuel vulnerabilities and reinforce the security case for electrification.
- Grubert stresses renewables reduce reliance on fuel imports, though manufacturing and supply chains create new security considerations.