Crypto’s Divergence: Peak Pessimism, AI Agents, and Positive Signs for Altcoins

This week, we unpack some major crypto market themes:

• The Iran shock has turned oil from a background variable into an active transmission channel for inflation and volatility, complicating the Fed’s path to rate cuts just as labor data quietly weakens in the background. What will the Fed do at its FOMC meeting this week?
• Bitcoin has outperformed U.S. equities and large‑cap tech on a risk‑adjusted basis since the start of March, helped by prior deleveraging and a cleaner positioning backdrop, which supports the view that we may be moving past “peak pessimism” – though the confirmation signal is still pending.
• Altcoins are showing strong relative performance, signaling a return to risk appetite, with AI-related sectors breaking out and gaining momentum following events like the Nvidia conference. That includes tokens like BItTensor’s TAO as well as Venice’s VVV. Meanwhile,  Meta’s acquisition of Moltbook (a social network for AI agents) highlights the growth of agentic commerce.
  
  Speakers:
  David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: DavidDuong)
  Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: colin_basco)