HousingWire Daily The best and worst case for housing as the Iran war continues
8 snips
Mar 27, 2026 
Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst tracking mortgage and housing data, gives scenario-driven takes. He explores how Iran war headlines moved oil, yields and mortgage rates. He outlines a worst-case of oil spikes, embedded inflation and stalled demand. He also lays out a best-case where a quick resolution cools oil, brings yields down and revives housing activity.
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Headlines Are Pushing Rates And Oil In Tandem
- Geopolitical headlines are driving bond and oil traders, causing rapid swings in mortgage rates and oil prices.
- Logan Mohtashami notes markets are “running off headlines” after March 21 escalation, showing volatility across 10-year yields and oil.
Temporarily Suspend Tariffs To Mitigate Energy Shock
- Remove or suspend tariffs to limit the economic damage from an energy supply shock.
- Logan explicitly recommends eliminating tariffs until the war is over to ease the shock on energy and trade costs.
Prolonged Energy Shock Could Drive Rates Above Seven Percent
- A prolonged Iran conflict that cripples oil output could push mortgage rates back above 7% through higher 10-year yields and wider spreads.
- Logan describes a worst case where months of disruption reduce production and demand falls as affordability deteriorates.