The David Lin Report 20% Of Global Oil Cut Off; Which Assets risk Collapse? | Louis Gave
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Mar 5, 2026 Louis Gave, CEO of Gavekal and macro strategist focused on Asia and global markets, explains how a Strait of Hormuz disruption would hit Asian economies hardest. He warns oil near $90 could tip growth into recession. He discusses who benefits from higher oil, why bonds may no longer hedge, and why gold and international equities deserve attention.
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Asia Feels Hormuz Disruption More Than The US
- Asia imports ~90% of Persian Gulf oil, so a Strait of Hormuz closure hits Asian growth far harder than the US.
- China mitigates risk via stockpiles, pipeline imports from Russia/Kazakhstan, and high EV adoption reducing oil sensitivity.
Curve Suggests Markets Expect A Short Disruption
- The oil futures curve shows a big front‑month spike while longer-dated contracts stay muted, implying markets expect a short-lived disruption.
- Traders are paying up for immediate supply while pricing resolution within a year or two.
You Can't Block Russia And The Middle East At Once
- Closing the Strait makes simultaneous bans on Russian and Middle Eastern exports politically and economically infeasible.
- Higher Gulf disruption reduces Western leverage to curtail Russian exports because global supply would be too constrained.
