Is Cuba Trump’s next target after Iran?

16 snips

Mar 13, 2026

Peter Kornbluh, senior analyst at the National Security Archive and co‑author of Back Channel to Cuba, gives a compact historical lens on Washington‑Havana dealings. He discusses secret back‑channel talks, the impact of Venezuelan oil cutoffs on Cuba’s rolling blackouts, shifting US tactics from engagement to pressure, and the political drivers in Miami and Washington shaping current negotiations.

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INSIGHT

Cuba As The Next Step In A Regional Doctrine

Trump treats Cuba as the next theatre to reassert US influence in the Western Hemisphere.
The move follows a pattern after Venezuela and Iran to demonstrate a new doctrine of denying hostile foreign footholds nearby.

INSIGHT

Oil Cutoffs Are The Main Lever On Cuba

Trump's Cuba strategy centres on cutting oil to create a coercive leverage point.
The US energy embargo, especially ending Venezuelan shipments, has caused rolling blackouts that cripple hospitals, agriculture and tourism.

ADVICE

Choose Engagement Not Military Pressure

If you prefer noncoercive change, favour engagement over military pressure.
Democrats historically push Obama's model: normalise trade, cultural ties and economic influence rather than threats or war.

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President Trump has renewed his threat of a “friendly takeover” of Cuba, saying the island is in deep trouble and that the Cuban government is desperate to make a deal. In this episode, Justin and Anthony look at how seriously we should we be taking these threats, and look into the talks taking place between the US and Cuba.

Pressure on Cuba has been building since the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro earlier this year, a long-time ally of Cuba’s government. The Trump administration has effectively cut off oil supplies into Cuba by stopping shipments of Venezuelan oil, and threatening to impose tariffs on any country which supplies the island with oil.

With the prospect of a worsening humanitarian crisis, as Cuba deals with mass blackouts - its electricity grid is powered by oil - affecting all areas of Cuba’s economy and society including schools, hospitals, agriculture and tourism, will the country make a deal with the US? Who is involved in the talks, and how does Trump’s approach differ from other US presidents?

We speak to Peter Kornbluh, co-author of Back Channel to Cuba: The Hidden History of Negotiations between Washington and Havana, who is also a senior analyst at the National Security Archive about the talks between the US and Cuba.

HOSTS: • Justin Webb, Radio 4 presenter • Anthony Zurcher, North America Correspondent

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This episode was made by Purvee Pattni, Mhairi MacKenzie, Grace Reeve and Rufus Gray. The technical producer was Rohan Madison. The series producer is Purvee Pattni. The senior news editor is Sam Bonham.

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