The President’s Inbox The New Saudi Strategy, With F. Gregory Gause III
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Feb 11, 2026 F. Gregory Gause III, scholar of Middle Eastern politics and Gulf expert, explains Mohammed bin Salman's consolidation of power and shifting Saudi strategy. He discusses Saudi moves toward Iran détente, cautious relations with the United States, China’s economic role, and how Gaza and regional rivalries reshape normalization and security calculations.
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MBS Runs The Show
- Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) effectively runs Saudi policy and has had prime ministerial authority since 2022.
- Power centralized around MBS after King Salman ceded authority and sidelined older princes.
Centralization Changed Decision-Making
- MBS consolidated power by removing rivals and cultivating a younger cohort of great-grandsons.
- This centralization reduced collective vetoes and sped decision-making while increasing personal control.
From Bold Intervention To Caution
- Early aggressive regional moves by MBS (Yemen, Qatar, Lebanon, tough rhetoric on Iran) largely failed.
- The 2019 attack on Abqaiq and limited U.S. response shifted MBS toward pragmatism and regional stability.