Full Story Will the strait of Hormuz torpedo Trump's war?
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Mar 17, 2026 
Jillian Ambrose, The Guardian energy correspondent covering global oil and gas and energy geopolitics. She breaks down why the Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint. She explains Iran's maritime tactics and how they halted tankers. She outlines market shocks, price ripple effects, and producers' pipeline workarounds. She assesses military escorts, UK policy options, and who stands to gain from higher energy prices.
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Karg Island Holds Iran's Oil Lifeblood
- Karg Island is Iran's export hub where about 90% of its oil is processed and loaded onto tankers.
- Attacking its infrastructure would cripple Iran long-term but also massively worsen global supply and prices.
Naval Escorts Are Not A Market-Sized Fix
- Military escorts offer limited relief but cannot restore the volume the market needs; markets want uninterrupted tanker flows.
- Announcements of escorts briefly moved markets, but oil jumped to $106 showing escorts aren't a full solution.
This Is The Biggest Oil Supply Shock Ever
- The IEA labelled this the greatest oil supply shock in market history, with Goldman Sachs estimating Hormuz closure is ~17x the impact of Russian export cuts.
- The scale leaves few untouched and risks long-term producer shutdowns.