The Compound and Friends Economic Data Deteriorates, Private Credit Struggles, Retail Traders Give Up
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Mar 24, 2026 They unpack worsening economic data and mixed consumer and labor signals. They explore early strains in private credit, liquidity risks, and the halo trade around private versus public BDCs. Housing market freeze and mortgage pain get attention. Retail trader pullback and its market impact is discussed. They note rising college grad unemployment and a memory‑chip rally as a standout sector.
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Housing Is Frozen And Driving Consumer Strain
- Housing is a major drag: 30-year mortgage rates remain above 6%, existing home sales at ~4M and inventories rising, squeezing mobility and wealth effects.
- Case-Shiller up only 1.4% year-over-year and existing sales near 10-year lows show muted price action despite rising seller supply.
Record Seller Excess Forces Builders To Deeply Incentivize Sales
- Buyer-seller imbalance is extreme: Redfin reports ~630k more sellers than buyers in February, the largest gap since tracking began.
- New-home incentives surged (Lennar averaged 14% incentives Q1), showing builders must subsidize sales to move inventory.
Retail Traders Have Retracted After Multiyear Frenzy
- Retail trader activity has sharply retreated: retail share of single-stock volume and zero‑DTE options usage plunged from 2023–25 peaks.
- Citadel Securities reported a record $12B trading rake in 2025, underscoring prior retail flow profits now fading.