Foreign Policy Live The World After Trump
Mar 24, 2026
Hal Brands, a Johns Hopkins global affairs professor and author, offers three stark scenarios for the world after Trump. He discusses a U.S.-China bipolar rivalry, the return of regional empires, and a chaotic self-help world. Short, vivid sketches map how states might align, how middle powers fit, and what policy moves could avert the worst outcomes.
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New Cold War Dynamics Are Likely
- A Cold War II world means a China-led bloc facing an American-led bloc with swing states hedging between them.
- Expect geopolitical and geoeconomic rivalry to reshape alliances, crises at flashpoints like Taiwan, and attenuated economic ties.
Regional Empires Replace Global Order
- A spheres-of-influence world fragments into regional empires when the U.S. withdraws from Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia.
- China, Russia, and India could each dominate contiguous regions while interdependence persists unevenly across domains.
Self-Help Leads To Proliferation And Chaos
- A self-help jungle world emerges if major powers become revisionist and no hegemon provides global public goods.
- That drives nuclear proliferation and chaotic regional rivalries as smaller states seek existential security.
