Trader Ferg: The Most Overlooked Commodities of the Iran War, ‘Worst Time Possible’ For Fertilizer

Mar 25, 2026

Trader Ferg, a full-time trader and Substack author known for niche commodity research. He highlights coal and corn as overlooked, cyclical opportunities. He links LNG damage and Red Sea disruptions to rising coal demand and warns fertilizer shortages could squeeze corn at planting. He also discusses gold’s role in de-dollarization and long-term bullishness for precious metals.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

ADVICE

Prefer Thermal Coal Positions Over LNG Stocks

Do consider buying high-calorie thermal coal exposure rather than LNG equities for asymmetric upside.
Coal producers are relatively cash-rich and can ramp utilization as Europe and Asia substitute coal for tight gas.

INSIGHT

Coal Pricing Poised To Grind Higher

Thermal coal is below cost curve with previous shut-ins, so price can grind higher as utilization increases.
Seasonal Asian cooling and European refills create step-up rallies; Ferg expects prices into the low $200s/ton in a squeeze.

INSIGHT

Fertilizer Disruption Threatens Spring Planting

Fertilizer flows through vulnerable chokepoints and the conflict hits deliveries at peak planting season.
Just-in-time fertilizer shipments (urea, ammonia) risk acute shortages for corn and wheat during March–May application windows.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Trader Ferg to the show. Trader Ferg is a Full-time Trader & Author of the Trader Ferg Substack. In this wide-ranging discussion, Trader Ferg shares his insights on several critical commodity markets and geopolitical developments, focusing primarily on coal and corn as compelling investment opportunities. Regarding coal, Trader Ferg argues that the conflict in the Red Sea and disruptions to LNG infrastructure have created a structural shift that will drive thermal coal prices higher. He highlights the significant damage to LNG trains and the resulting long-term supply constraints, particularly for European energy markets. With European gas storage at historic lows and alternative supply routes limited, coal becomes an increasingly attractive alternative. Ferg expects thermal coal prices to potentially reach the low $200 per ton range, driven by Asian cooling demands and European energy needs.

For corn, Trader Ferg sees significant potential due to fertilizer supply disruptions caused by conflicts in the Red Sea. The timing coincides with critical planting seasons, which could create acute shortages and price volatility. He prefers playing corn through options, citing the attractive volatility and low cost of entry compared to traditional equity plays. The conversation also explores broader macroeconomic trends, including the potential for gold to re-emerge as a settlement currency between nations.

Ferg believes we’re witnessing an acceleration of de-dollarization, with countries like Russia exploring gold-based settlement mechanisms with Asian trading partners. On precious metals, Ferg remains bullish, viewing the current pullback as a temporary setback in a longer-term bull market. He anticipates continued inflationary pressures and potential monetary expansion will ultimately support gold and other commodity prices. Throughout the discussion, Trader Ferg emphasizes his investment philosophy of identifying underappreciated, cyclical commodities with structural tailwinds and asymmetric potential for significant price appreciation.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:33 – Welcoming Guest Furgerskullen
00:01:05 – Spotlight on Coal Opportunities
00:02:03 – LNG Supply Disruptions Analysis
00:04:49 – Europe’s Russian Gas Ban
00:09:57 – Thermal Coal Demand Revival
00:17:15 – Fertilizer Shortages Hit Grains
00:23:12 – Precious Metals Bull Market
00:30:31 – Gold as Settlement Currency
00:32:50 – Platinum Group Elements Update
00:38:30 – Oil Market Dynamics Discussion
00:45:16 – Helium Export Vulnerabilities
00:48:40 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Substack: https://traderferg.substack.com/
X: https://x.com/trader_ferg

Trader Ferg is a Full-time trader for going on 8+ years now. He has a habit of hanging out in hated corners of the market that are considered uninvestable. He enjoys sharing his research and thoughts about possible trades and markets.