RickRunGood | Golf Data and Betting Insights Arnold Palmer Invitational LIVE CHAT | Fantasy, Betting, DFS Q&A, Weather 2026
Mar 3, 2026
Final look at Bay Hill strategy, weather and wind forecasts for the course. One‑and‑done ownership tactics and matchup thinking for Morikawa, Keegan, Scotty and sleepers. Model runs, projection tweaks, and tiered picks for contest lineups. Betting plans, futures talk, and stat‑driven flags like regression risks and club/ball speed trends.
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Transcript
Episode notes
Rick's Windy Units Mixup
- Rick misread Windy by leaving it in knots instead of mph and publicly apologized after an email corrected him.
- He corrected Windy to miles per hour and found it matched Weather Underground, so the earlier forecast error was his fault.
Small Field Drives Higher Elite Ownership
- One-and-done projected ownerships show Scotty Scheffler, Matt Fitzpatrick, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, and Xander Schauffele sitting in the 8–14% tier.
- Rick notes small field and big winner's share explains heavy ownership for multiple elite players.
Use Colin Morikawa As One And Done Leverage
- Use Colin Morikawa in one-and-done if you need a lowish-ownership swing; Rick has played him in every entry for leverage and win upside.
- Morikawa's elite approach and fairway/rough consistency plus recent wins justify taking variance on his putting.