Glenn Diesen - Greater Eurasia Podcast Theodore Postol: The Secrets of Russia's Oreshnik Missile
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Jan 19, 2026 
Theodore Postol, MIT Professor Emeritus and former Pentagon advisor, breaks down the capabilities of Russia's Oreshnik missile, revealing it as a powerful conventional weapon. He discusses the design and operational mechanics, debunking myths around its nuclear equivalence. Postol highlights the missile's impact physics and tactical uses, emphasizing its effectiveness against buildings and challenges in interception. He also warns against conflating conventional strikes with nuclear threats, highlighting the risks of political misunderstanding in military contexts.
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Conventional Power, Not Nuclear
- The Oreshnik is a very powerful conventional weapon that delivers kinetic submunitions rather than a near-nuclear device.
- Theodore Postol warns policymakers a nuclear response to a conventional Oreshnik strike would be unjustifiable and catastrophic.
Repurposed SS-20 Stage And Buses
- Oreshnik uses a single stage derived from the SS-20 first stage and carries multiple 'buses' that each deploy submunitions.
- Each bus appears to hold roughly six submunitions, giving about 36 munitions per missile.
Tumbling Cuts Terminal Speed
- Submunitions reenter at hypersonic speeds but often hit ground much slower if they tumble during descent.
- Tumbling increases aerodynamic drag, causing debris to strike at ~150 km/h rather than hypersonic speeds.