On Investors’ Minds - APAC Edition VIDEO: U.S. Fed maintains interest rate amid tariff and geopolitical uncertainties
Mar 19, 2026
An update on the Fed holding rates and the committee’s shifting rate path. Discussion of geopolitical tension in the Middle East and its impact on oil and supply risks. Market moves in yields, equities, the dollar and gold. Comparison of current energy shock dynamics with 2022 and investment ideas across alternatives, income and pro-growth positioning.
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Fed Holds Rates As Inflation Risks Rise
- The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% and signalled rates likely remain unchanged through the first half of the year.
- FOMC projections nudged 2026 PCE higher and most members expect no immediate cuts, reflecting tariff and energy risks described by Tai Hui.
Fed Raises 2026 Inflation Forecast
- The Fed raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% and 2027 core PCE to 2.2%, partly due to tariffs and potential higher energy costs.
- Tai Hui links these revisions to tariff persistence and the Middle East conflict pushing oil above $100, lifting headline inflation.
Markets Push First Cut Farther Out
- Market pricing shifted markedly: futures pushed the first Fed cut out to July 2027, while Tai Hui still expects one cut before year-end but later than previously thought.
- Short-end yields rose (two-year up) as markets priced limited near-term easing amid geopolitical risk.