At Any Rate European Rates: Scandinavian rate outlook – a long winter hibernation
Feb 13, 2026
Frida Infante, a J.P. Morgan macro and central bank analyst for Nordic economies, discusses Sweden and Norway rate markets. She covers Norway’s inflation surprise and implications for Norges Bank. She contrasts Sweden’s softer inflation and Riksbank trajectory. She also explores front-end repricing, curve steepness, and cross-market spreads.
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Norway's Inflation Surprise Raises Policy Bar
- Norway's January CPI surprised to the upside and showed broad-based gains led by rent and other categories.
- Frida Infante says this keeps Norges Bank on hold through 2026 with a higher path and a high bar for future easing.
Treat Norway's Front-End Reprice As A Reset
- Markets should treat the recent front-end repricing in Norway as a justified reset rather than an overshoot according to Frida Infante.
- She advises watching February CPI and the krona, which could briefly re-open cuts if CPI reverses or the krona weakens.
Norwegian Curve Likely To Flatten Not Spike
- The front-end Norwegian curve repriced sharply after the CPI print, pushing cuts out to September and flattening expected moves for 2026.
- Frida Infante expects the curve to flatten rather than move materially higher as cuts are delayed.