The Julia La Roche Show #316 Melody Wright, Who Drove 10,000 Miles Across America Observing Housing Conditions, Warns Why We Could See a 38% Correction In Home Prices
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Dec 12, 2025 
Melody Wright, a housing market analyst and author of M3 Melody Substack, shares her insights after driving 10,000 miles across America examining housing conditions. She warns of a potential 38% correction in home prices, emphasizing that the middle class is being squeezed out of homeownership. Melody debunks the myth of a structural housing shortage, citing high vacancy rates and rising inventory. She discusses how the current crisis could impact millennials more severely than in 2008, urging prospective buyers to hold off and prepare for a turbulent market ahead.
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Zillow Signals Broad Value Declines
- Zillow data showed 53% of homes had declining values, reflecting widespread price pressure.
- Melody Wright highlights regional divergence, with southern overbuilding and negative year-over-year prices in parts of California.
Institutions Sell Faster Than Mom-and-Pops
- Institutional investors are net sellers and often exit earlier because it's an 'Excel decision.'
- Mom-and-pop landlords may hold longer, but many are also starting to offload as carrying costs rise.
A 38% Correction To Restore Affordability
- Current price declines are an early taste of a larger adjustment; Melody forecasts a full correction to align median income with median home price.
- She estimates an aggregate 38% correction could be needed for affordability to return.